Table of Contents
China Snap Shot................................................................................ 3
Ahead of the pack.............................................................................. 5
Positioning ahead of likely consensus earnings revisions.........................................................5
Top BUYS for positive consensus earnings revisions ...............................................................5
Top SELLS for positive consensus earnings revisions..............................................................6
Valuation: Small upside, near-term momentum looks positive .................................................8
Outlook by Sector............................................................................ 10
Banks: Neutral........................................................................................................................10
Insurance: Neutral ...................................................................................................................12
Real Estate: Underweight .......................................................................................................14
Telecom: Neutral.....................................................................................................................16
Oil & Gas: Underweight ..........................................................................................................18
Utilities (IPPs): Overweight .....................................................................................................20
Capital Goods (Power Equipment): Neutral.............................................................................22
Capital Goods (Railway/Construction): Neutral........................................................................24
Transport: Underweight ..........................................................................................................26
Ports: Neutral ..........................................................................................................................29
Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto): Neutral.............................................................................30
Consumer Discretionary (Auto): Neutral .................................................................................31
Consumer Staples: Overweight ..............................................................................................32
Metals & Mining (Steel): Neutral .............................................................................................33
Construction Materials (Cement): Overweight........................................................................35
China Market Diary.......................................................................... 37
MSCI China Sector performance ............................................................................................37
Liquidity, flows and sentiment ................................................................................................42
A-H Premium ..........................................................................................................................44
Earnings momentum...............................................................................................................44
Sector operating performance and valuation ..........................................................................45
Volatility and risk .....................................................................................................................46
DB’s China Macro view................................................................... 49
A second dip is almost certain [published on July 17] ............................................................49
DB Comments on recent macro data points for China ...........................................................52
Appendix A: Event Calendars ......................................................... 56
China economics calendar ......................................................................................................56
China earnings calendar ..........................................................................................................57
Appendix B: Comps (growth) ......................................................... 58
Comps (valuation) ........................................................................... 60
Comps (Risk) .................................................................................... 62