Deutsche Bank 3月7日报告，18页。
   　Recent data and shifts in Fed communications have led investors toask if the Fed has fallen behind the curve in dealing with inflation.The labor market has been hovering around full employment levels，wage inflation has been rising，albeit slowly，and headline PCE and CPIinflation are now essentially in line with the Fed’s target while coreinflation is within close striking distance.Yet monetary policy remainsaccommodative and growth prospects have been improving.Given lagsin the effects of monetary policy，one can understand why the Fed shiftedtoward a somewhat more aggressive tightening stance in its recentcommunications，with the probability on a rate hike in March more thandoubling following a series of Fed speeches over the past week.