瑞银2017年3月最新欧洲股票策略：Europe's Value Rally over? French Election impact，110页

Backdrop: Value & cyclicals have rallied on a par with prior crisis rallies. Time for a breather, or are profits 'really' returning this time? Politics – opinion polls' inability to predict - increases risk premia

• Are European Earnings set to turn for first time in 7 years?
– We forecast 8% EPS growth in 2017 as the 3 drags fade: commodities, zero inflation and EM.
– A decent Q4 reporting season & revenue momentum has turned positive - leads sales growth by 6 months.

• Upside Risks? Fiscal Boost, companies re-lever, equities re-rate to bond-like multiples, US investors come back, fx. Downside Risks? Eurozone political risk – a busy political calendar, Eurozone banks.

• Themes – Europe better suited to rising rates? It is different from World – 4 ideas
– Style: Excess Value dispersion gaps close by 2/3rd, but gaps are still biggest in world
– Regional: Europe cheap vs US still at crisis levels
– Total Return gap Bonds vs Equities still near crisis peak
– Dividends – Europe suited to rising rates: highest Financial/Energy share in Dividends vs Dev World. And pay-out ratio falling

• Sector Strategy
– Overweight: Energy, Autos, Construction, Healthcare, Telecoms, Utilities, Tech, Chemicals
– Underweight: Food Producers, Beverages, Tobacco, Household Products, Transport, Leisure