央行再度上调公开市场利率 靶向调控房地产
2017年03月16日 20:35 来源于 财新网
此次调整的目的是着力防控金融市场和资产价格泡沫，同时也是对美联储加息的反应


　　【财新网】（记者 郭楠）3月16日，中国人民银行上调公开市场操作利率10个基点，这是2017年以来央行第二次采取此类行动。分析认为，此次调整的主要目标是控制房地产，也是同期美联储加息的反应。北京时间3月16日凌晨，美联储宣布加息25个基点，这是美联储十年来第三次加息。
　　此次央行通过公开市场操作，逆回购、中期借贷便利（MLF）均上调10BP，7天、14天、28天期逆回购中标利率分别为2.45%、2.60%和2.75%，6个月、1年期MLF中标利率分别为3.05%和3.20%，同时MLF操作增量至3030亿元。另外，国库现金管理中标利率4.2%，较上期上行125个基点。
　　据中信证券数据，央行在1月24日、3月7日和3月16日三次MLF操作的加权利率分别为3.02%、3.03%和3.14%，加权利率分别提升了1个和11个基点。
　　中信证券固定收益分析师明明表示，此次利率上调10个基点本身幅度不大，对实体经济影响有限，主要目的是为了控制近期再度升温的房地产。同时这次MLF操作“量价配合”，通过价格的提高保持适度去杠杆的力度，通过量的增加，保证机构不会出现流动性缺口。
　　据国家统计局3月14日公布的数据，1-2月，全国房地产开发投资9854亿元，同比名义增长8.9%，增速比去年全年提高2个百分点，比上年同期加快5.9个百分点，显示房地产又有过热的苗头。
　　光大证券固定收益首席分析师张旭认为，上调OMO＋MLF利率更多的是出于“着力防控金融市场和资产价格泡沫”的考虑，同时也是对美联储加息的反应。张旭认为，存贷款基准利率上调不仅能影响商业银行的信贷投放行为，也影响存量信贷的利率，而OMO＋MLF利率的调整对实体经济影响更为温和，而房企的负债率较高，对利率的变动更为敏感，因此相当于“靶向治疗”。
　　3月15日，李克强总理在答记者问中提到，对于一些不可忽视的风险，发现了会及时处置、靶向治疗，不会让它蔓延，不会让风险“急性发作”，更不会发生区域性或系统性的风险。同时，政府工作报告中删除了有关“降低融资成本”的表述，这体现出政府对于融资成本上行的宽容度。
　　随着近期经济回暖的势头初步确立，央行公开市场操作利率的提升，令市场担心，在美联储加息进程中，中国央行年内加息的可能也在增加。对此明明认为，从目前数据看，央行还不存在加息的理由。因为从基本面来看，2月CPI同比增速从1月的2.5%下滑至0.8%。
　　随着央行调升公开市场利率，货币市场资金利率大幅提高。银行间质押式回购利率明显抬升，7天期逆回购利率上行近20BP至2.7641%；交易所质押式回购利率大幅飙升，上交所隔夜品种GC001最高升至18.1%，7天期品种GC001上行90BP至4.345%，深交所隔夜品种飙升至15.01%，7天期品种R-007提升118BP至4.480%。
　　有交易员表示，资金利率大幅提高与季末将迎MPA考核有关，跨月和跨季资金利率拆提升明显。另外，光大银行转债明日缴款，或将冻结资金3500到5000亿元左右，带来一定的流动性压力。
　　虽然央行抬高公开市场利率，非银资金十分紧张，但债市情绪依然高涨。3月16日，国债期货全线走高，十年国债期货主力合约T1706上涨0.76%，创逾两个月新高；10年期国债收益率下行4个基点至3.31%，十年期国开债收益率下行4个基点至4.08%。
　　国泰君安期货分析师王洋表示，短期实际利率和通胀预期可以解释长期国债收益率的大部分波动。此次央行调升政策基准利率，意味着短期实际利率抬升，但通胀预期如果出现明显下降，且降幅足以抵消前者的上升，则正好解释了从3月16日凌晨的美国到3月16日下午的中国债券市场同步发生的事情。
　　王洋分析称，一方面，以三个月期SHIBOR－10年期国债收益率/三个月期国债收益率的走势来看，此利差以升至2015年底以来新高，并有见顶回落迹象，国债收益率之前刚刚经历了显著上行，因此利差回落只能来自于SHIBOR的下行。另一方面，2月份通胀数据表明，PPI同比增速提升并未传导至CPI，因此降低了市场对通胀的预期。
Central Bank Raises Reverse Repo Rates in Bid to Cool Housing Market
By Guo Nan and Dong Tongjian
Apartment models are displayed at a real estate sales center in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, in June 2015. The central bank raised the rates of its open market operations on Thursday to contain rising housing prices.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) raised the seven-day, 14-day and 28-day reverse repo rates by 10 basis points to 2.45%, 2.6%, and 2.75% respectively. The PBOC raised all three rates in February.
Meanwhile, the central bank also raised the interest rates on loans offered through its medium-term lending facility (MLF), a tool used to manage liquidity in the interbank market. Interest rates of the six-month MLF and one-year MLF rose to 3.05 percent and 3.2 percent respectively
The changes in the open market rates were not big enough to have an actual effect on the real economy, and the main purpose was to cool the latest frenzy in the housing market, Citic Securities analyst Ming Ming said in a research note. He added that the move is an attempt to squeeze leverage and support bank liquidity at the same time.
As regulators have stepped up efforts to curb property developers’ ability to raise financing by issuing debts and through shadow banking, banks have granted more loans to property developers. Real estate developers raised a total 2.3 trillion yuan ($333 billion) in the first two months of 2017, up 7% year-on-year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Specifically, property developers received 498.5 billion yuan from domestic banks, up 11.5% from the same period in 2016.
“More loans granted to property developers indicates that commercial banks still value lending to the housing market as quality assets, compared with other industries,” said Zhang Dawei, a Beijing-based analyst with Centaline Property Agency Ltd.
In January and February, investment in real-estate development, including commercial and residential property, totaled 985.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% compared with the same period a year earlier, the NBS said.
Unlike changing the benchmark one-year lending rate, which has stood at 4.35% since its last cut in October 2015, the higher rates for open market operations will not affect interest rates of outstanding credit loans, said Zhang Xu, a fixed-income analyst with Everbright Securities, based in Shanghai.
As most property developers incur more debts than other enterprises and are more sensitive to changes in benchmark rates, the open market operations can be seen as a “targeted solution” to address mounting debts in the housing market and head off asset bubbles, Zhang said.