英文文献：The Effect of Foot and Mouth Disease on Trade and Prices in International Beef Markets-口蹄疫对国际牛肉市场贸易和价格的影响
英文文献作者：Jarvis, Lovell S.,Cancino, Jose P.,Bervejillo, Jose E.
英文文献摘要：
The paper develops and uses a two step quantitative model to analyze the effect of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) on international beef markets over time. Using monthly data from 1990-2002 for 7 major beef exporters and for 22 major beef importers, we use a probit equation to estimate the probability that country i exports to country j, taking account of foot and mouth status of exporter, sanitary policy of importer, beef quality, trade preferences, distance, and other factors affecting whether beef trade occurs. We then use OLS to estimate the export prices that are obtained for beef, taking account of beef quality, country per capita, trading preferences, region, per capita income, and a time trend, including terms to adjust for censorship in the first stage. Using the estimated equations, we compare the predicted change in trading partners and in the prices received by the two exporters in our sample that are not FMD free, Brazil and Uruguay, under the assumption that their status switches from having FMD to being FMD free. The model performs well. The results suggest that FMD continues to impede trade between many countries and does accordingly reduce the price received for beef from countries with FMD. Nonetheless, the "sanction" from FMD appears smaller than previously believed.

本文建立并使用两步定量模型来分析口蹄疫对国际牛肉市场随时间的影响。使用从1990 - 2002年的月度数据为七大牛肉出口商和22个主要牛肉进口商,我们使用一个probit方程来估计的概率我出口国家j,考虑到口蹄疫出口国的地位,卫生政策的进口国,牛肉质量、贸易优惠,距离,和其他影响因素是否牛肉贸易发生。然后，考虑牛肉质量、国家人均、贸易优惠、地区、人均收入和时间趋势，包括第一阶段为审查而调整的条款，我们使用OLS估计得到的牛肉出口价格。利用估计方程，我们在假设巴西和乌拉圭从有口蹄疫转变为无口蹄疫的情况下，比较了贸易伙伴和样本中两个非无口蹄疫出口商收到的价格的预测变化。这个模型运行良好。结果表明，口蹄疫继续阻碍许多国家之间的贸易，并因此降低了从有口蹄疫国家进口牛肉的价格。尽管如此，来自FMD的“制裁”似乎比之前认为的要小。