Table of Contents
Investment summary................................................................6
Reasons to become more positive on PGMs................................................................6
New mine supply of PGMs dominated by SA - growth has been- and may remain
constrained for some years...........................................................................................9
SA mining legislation update - another impediment to investment in capacity? .......10
So metals investors will likely remain an important factor in PGMs demand...........11
Pt equities discounting PGM prices below sustainable levels (except Eastplats) ......13
Conclusion .................................................................................................................14
Forecasts, valuations, sensitivity analysis & price targets
update......................................................................................16
Currency and metal price assumptions ......................................................................16
EPS forecasts summary..............................................................................................16
Enterprise value per production ounce metrics. .........................................................17
DCF- based valuations and price targets....................................................................19
Sensitivity analysis ....................................................................................................20
Anglo American Platinum Corporation Ltd..........................22
Description.................................................................................................................22
Key model changes - operational outlook improving ................................................22
Boundry changes........................................................................................................23
Funding the balance sheet..........................................................................................26
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................27
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................28
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................29
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................29
Aquarius Platinum Limited ....................................................31
Description.................................................................................................................31
Key model changes....................................................................................................31
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................33
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................33
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................34
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................35
Eastern Platinum Ltd..............................................................37
Description.................................................................................................................37
Key model changes....................................................................................................37
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................38
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................39
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................39
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................39
Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd ...............................................41
Description.................................................................................................................41
Key model changes....................................................................................................42
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................43
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................44
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................45
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................46
Lonmin plc ..............................................................................48
Description.................................................................................................................48
Key model changes....................................................................................................48
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................50
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................51
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................51
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................52
Northam Platinum Ltd............................................................54
Description.................................................................................................................54
Key model changes....................................................................................................54
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................55
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................56
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................57
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................57