Table of Contents
Investment summary -top stock picks: ANG and GFI ...........5
The more things change, the more they stay the same ........7
Production in SA impacted by safety stoppages ..........................................................8
Costs pressures persist .................................................................................................8
SA mining legislation update.....................................................................................11
Gold price outlook..................................................................12
Forecasts, valuations, price targets & sensitivity analysis 16
Changes to our currency and gold price assumptions ................................................16
EPS forecasts summary..............................................................................................16
DCF- based valuations and price targets summary....................................................17
Sensitivity analysis ....................................................................................................18
AngloGold Ashanti Limited ...................................................19
Description.................................................................................................................19
Model changes ...........................................................................................................20
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................21
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................21
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................22
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................22
DRDGold Ltd...........................................................................24
Description.................................................................................................................24
Model changes ...........................................................................................................25
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................25
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................26
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................26
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................27
Gold Fields Ltd .......................................................................29
Description.................................................................................................................29
Model changes ...........................................................................................................30
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................30
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................31
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................31
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................31
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd................................................34
Description.................................................................................................................34
Model changes ...........................................................................................................35
Investment arguments and risks.................................................................................35
Key catalysts for rerating ...........................................................................................36
Constituents of our DCF valuation ............................................................................36
Investment conclusion ...............................................................................................36