Table of Contents
The Download… 3
Executive Summary 5
Hardware 6
Software 7
Semiconductors 8
Intel 9
Micron 9
CIO Survey Details 10
Topic #1: “What do you expect PCs purchased by your company to increase or
decrease by year-over-year in 2009 and 2010?” 10
Topic #2: “How does the replacement rate of your PC installed base during 2009
compare with your expectations heading into the year? And, is your organization
extending the life of its PC installed base during 2009?” 13
“If your organization intends to extend the life of your PC installed base in 2009,
what are the primary reasons? Please explain.” 14
Topic #3: “What percent of your current PC installed base is due for replacement, pastdue,
or not due?” 17
“If your organization intends to extend the life of your PC installed base in 2009, how
does this influence your spending intentions on PCs in 2010? Please explain.” 17
Topic #4: “What is the age of your organization’s PC installed base vs. your preferred
average age and specific age-limits?” 20
Topic #5: “What percent of your PC purchases were/will be traditional PCs versus thin
clients in 2008, 2009, and 2010?” 22
Topic #6: “How will the release of Windows 7 on October 22, 2009 impact your PC
purchases in 2009?” 22
“How will the release of Windows 7 on October 22, 2009 impact your PC purchases
in 2009?” 23
Topic #7: “How will the release of Windows 7 on October 22, 2009 impact your PC
purchases in 2010?” 26
“How will the release of Windows 7 on October 22, 2009 impact your PC purchases
in 2010? Please explain.” 26
Software 30
What Happens if PC Shipments Grow Faster than 12.1% in 2010? Or, if Windows
ASPs Improve? 30
Potential Areas for Upside at Microsoft 30
Microsoft Sensitivity Analysis 31
Is Microsoft’s Client Revenue More Cyclical Now than in Past Downturns (e.g., Fiscal
2002)? 34
Cyclicality: Microsoft vs. Other Software Stocks (Deeper In, Steeper Recovery Out?) 36
Hardware 40
Why Does a Corporate Upgrade Cycle Matter? 40
How Does This Impact HP and Dell? 42
Sensitivity to Fluctuations in Our Unit and ASP Forecasts 43
Dell Sensitivity Analysis 43
Hewlett-Packard Sensitivity Analysis 45
Semiconductors 48
Intel Sensitivity Analysis 48
Micron Sensitivity Analysis 49
Sources and References 52