Calendar of events 3
Consumerama: 5 back-toschool
investment themes 4
Spirits 4
Sporting goods 7
Post-trauma valuation 7
Estimates: what we changed 8
Estimates: how we differ from consensus 9
What our target prices imply 10
Theme 1: Sticker shock – play the entry level 11
Theme 2: A world less travelled 14
Theme 3: Emerging markets 16
Theme 4: M&A 18
Theme 5: Currency swings 22
Investment cases 25
adidas: expect EPS upgrades 26
Bulgari: undeserved rally 28
Burberry: our preferred luxury mid cap but upside seems
limited after the strong re-rating 30
Christian Dior: discount less attractive 32
Coach: the stock best adapted to the ‘new normal’ 34
Diageo: a true GARP stock 36
Essilor: upgrade to Overweight 38
Hermès: EPS increase limited for a demanding valuation 40
Luxottica: the tide has turned 42
LVMH: no specific catalysts 44
Nike: strong specific attributes fully factored in now, we feel 46
Pernod Ricard: time to focus on PE and cash generation 48
PPR: H1 surprise in the price 50
Puma: cheap again, upgrade to Overweight 52
Rémy Cointreau: bad news is known; keeping contrarian
OW(V) 54
Richemont: we find excitement premature; downgrade to
UW(V) 56
Swatch: sorry but we can’t believe the hype 58
Financials & valuation: 59
Tiffany: impressive management of the downturn 60
Tod’s: a European player well adapted to the ‘new normal’ 62
Disclosure appendix 65
Disclaimer 71
Contents