High conviction Neutral 3
Rating changes 3
The worst probably over 4
But we question the consensus ’V-shaped’ recovery
expectation 4
Valuations not compelling if no material profit bounce in
2010 6
Investment cases 7
Bulgari: a victim of size and its heavy investments 8
Burberry: After the strong rally, potential return seems more
limited 10
Christian Dior: less potential return on the stock now 12
Coach: the best adapted stock to the “new normal” 14
Hermès: after strong re-rating, hard to find a positive catalyst 16
Luxottica: the strongest potential for positive surprises 18
LVMH: LV specific strength well known by the market 20
PPR: re-rating broadly done 22
Richemont: the strongest assets in hard luxury 24
Swatch: too far, too quickly? 26
Tiffany: strong share price rebound 28
Tod’s: affordability may offer resilience in the downturn 30
Disclosure appendix 32
Disclaimer 35