【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月欧洲奢侈品行业研究报告
        【作者】：evolution 证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：
Luxury Goods sector
More sparkle to come
A mixed message has been conveyed by industry players in recent
statements. While there are some negative issues that will continue to
weigh on the sector performance, more positive aspects will emerge, from
which the companies will benefit in the remainder of the year and in
2010. A tick up in demand, an end to the drastic destocking and easing
comps will probably mean a much more stable environment for the sector.
As this recovery becomes more visible, the positive momentum is likely to
accelerate. We are upgrading LVMH to BUY (from Neutral).
Benefit from easing comps and cost efficiencies: We expect the rate of sales
decline to slow and turn positive for some players. Even if a true bottom may not
have been reached yet, focus will shift towards next year, where easier comps and
increased consumer confidence will boost the industry’s performance. Our analysis
also suggests significant upgrade potential from cost savings.
Wealth recovery of HNWIs in financial services and property: Industry
experts suggest that customers still have the ability to buy, but have postponed
their purchases because of lack of confidence. This demand should turn into
increased customer activity in a more sustainable recovery scenario, boosted by
recovered wealth in the financial services and property markets. 32% of the UK
rich list sourced their wealth from these two segments.
Acceleration in emerging markets: As global luxury demand has suffered from
the economic crisis, emerging markets, like China, the Middle East or LatAm were
the only markets that have kept growing. We expect accelerated growth in 2010.
Swatch, Richemont and LVMH are best placed to benefit from this, in our view.
History is highly re-assuring: Historically, the Luxury Goods sector has shown
great resilience, having rebounded strongly following years of negative margin
growth. Our analysis suggests that current market estimates ignore this strength.
Double-digit EPS growth despite renewed euro strength: We have updated
our forecast to reflect currency movements and more positive industry trends. We
forecast an average F09 EPS decline of 13% followed by 16% growth in F10.
Sector valuation still below long-term average: The sector is trading on a
calendar 2010 PE of 17.3x (excluding Hermès), versus the European market at
13.0x. Our 2009E PE premium of 27% compares to an average premium of c38%
in the last 10 years, and is well below the peak premium of almost 100%. Our
medium term expectation is for a return to an above-average premium rating.
LVMH is the only stock that is trading below its long term average PE rating. Given
its market leadership, strong distribution platform and category diversification, we
see it as a safe haven in the sector. We also upgrade Christian Dior to Add (from
Neutral) and Richemont and Swatch to Neutral (from Reduce).

Contents
Sustainable recovery not priced in ...................................................3
The start of a new cycle?..................................................................4
Stabilisation in H2 and beyond ..........................................................6
History is highly re-assuring ..........................................................7
Cost efficiencies – significant upgrade potential ................................8
Long term benefit from shift to retail ..............................................9
Geographic mix – acceleration in emerging markets..........................9
Product diversification – crisis protection .......................................10
Time for M&A?................................................................................11
Potential bid candidates .................................................................12
Potential bidders ...........................................................................13
Can two giants be combined? ......................................................14
Conclusion – only Burberry possible .................................................14
Sector valuation still below long-term average ..............................15
Industry growth – good long term drivers to prevail ...........................17
Less favourable forex incorporated ..................................................20
Share price performance breakdown ................................................23
Forecast and recommendation changes ............................................24
Company financials ........................................................................27