Australia Property
Trust Talk: 80th Edition
Chart of the Week: Regression Model Suggests
Residential House Price Strength, But Risks Remain
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Dec-87
Dec-88
Dec-89
Dec-90
Dec-91
Dec-92
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Real House Price Growth (yoy) Predicted House Price Growth (yoy)
R² = 0.85
Source: ABS, RBA, Morgan Stanley Research
Chart of the Week: Recent data from the ABS suggests
house prices are recovering from their recent lows, as
we near the phasing out of the First Home Owner Boost
(FHOB) and the Australian economy shows signs of a
more shallow downturn than expected. Given recent
strength in many of the macro factors that drive house
prices, we have updated our house price regression
model to assess the theoretical impact on house prices
over the next 18 months. The model suggests that
house prices will hold up, peaking at 13% yoy growth in
March 2010 and then returning to a more modest 4%
yoy growth by December 2010. Whilst we don’t disagree
with the general positive movement in house prices over
the short-to-medium term, we believe there are
significant risks to forecasting the impact on volumes
and pricing post Dec-09 when the stimulus is removed,
which will constrain house price growth, in our view.
This week in Australia: Australian retail sales fall, July
home loans figures fall for first time in 10 months, and
employers cut 27,100 jobs as stimulus spending slows.
Internationally: Europe/UK Property Team highlights key
takeaways from the European Public Real Estate
Association (EPRA) conference. Brixton takeover provides
organic growth potential to drive outperformance for
SEGRO. Sino Land provides good earnings visibility
looking into F2010.