英文文献：Estimated Contribution of Four Biotechnologies to New Zealand Agriculture-四种生物技术对新西兰农业的估计贡献
英文文献作者：Kaye-Blake, William,Saunders, Caroline M.
英文文献摘要：
The impact of biotechnology is an important consideration for New Zealand. The country depends significantly on agricultural production and exports (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2004), and has relied in part on modern biotechnology for productivity increases over the last 20 years (Evenson & Gollin, 2003; Jacobsen & Scobie, 1999; Ovenden, Anderson, Armstrong, & Mitchel, 1985). A recent survey of individuals in agriculture and biotechnology generated a comprehensive list of products and processes that are derived from four specific biotechnologies and are commercially significant in agriculture (Kaye-Blake, Saunders, Emanuelsson, Dalziel, & Wreford, 2005). This innovative research generated primary data on the actual impacts that biotechnology is currently having on agricultural production and produced a unique dataset of biotechnology products and processes and their value to New Zealand agriculture. Analysis found that these four biotechnologies are contributing approximately $206 million per year to agriculture. This analysis, however, assumed perfectly elastic international prices, and thus that New Zealand agricultural producers would capture the benefits of increased productivity. Literature on the impacts of productivity increases suggests that the distribution of benefits from increased productivity depends on how widely a technology is adopted. For example, genetic improvements in the crops of one country can allow domestic producers to increase producer surplus at the expense of producers in the rest of the world (Frisvold, Sullivan, & Raneses, 2003). By contrast, domestic farmers may be worse off if innovations are adopted in both the home country and the rest of the world (Moschini, Lapan, & Sobolevsky, 2000). The literature also suggests that specific impact of a novel technology is important to its impacts on agricultural producers. For example, technology that increases yields may be less beneficial for farmers than technology that reduces costs (Moschini et al., 2000). In addition, innovations that increase productivity of commodity products with low price elasticities of demand may not benefit farmers as much as innovations that increase consumer demand for agricultural products (Saunders & Cagatay, 2003). These findings are relevant because some features of New Zealand's primary sector suggest that international price impacts may be important. New Zealand is an open economy (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), 2004) and a significant exporter on world markets, particularly in pastoral products (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), 2004; Saunders & Cagatay, 2003). Modelling the movement of international prices may be done in several ways. The general equilibrium GTAP model (Hertel, 1997), for example, has been used to examine the potential impacts of biotechnology on producer and consumer welfare assuming different levels of adoption and consumer acceptance (e.g., Anderson & Jackson, 2005; Stone, Matysek, & Dolling, 2002). These impacts have also been analysed with partial equilibrium models, in particular models derived originally from the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations (Roningen, 1997), such as SWOPSIM (Frisvold et al., 2003; Roningen, Dixit, Sullivan, & Hart, 1991) and LTEM (Saunders & Cagatay, 2003). Partial equilibrium models are particularly appropriate for analysing impacts on a single sector of the economy: they allow substantial disaggregation by commodity and examination of the linkages that lead to model results (Gaisford & Kerr, 2001). In order to investigate the possible impact of biotechnological innovations on commodity prices and agricultural producers, the results of the original findings based on elastic prices were incorporated into a partial equilibrium model of world agricultural commodity trade (Cagatay & Saunders, 2003; Saunders & Cagatay, 2003). The model contained 19 commodities, including the major trade commodities for New Zealand (dairy products and meat). World trade was divided into 17 countries and the rest of the world, including New Zealand as a separate entity as well as the US, EU, Australia, Japan and others. As a partial equilibrium model, it examined the agricultural sector in isolation from other sectors of the economy. The base year was 2000, and impacts were modelled to 2005. The base solution modelled current production, which included biotechnological innovations. Alternative scenarios modelled the impact of the absence or loss of biotechnological innovations. The first scenario modelled the absence of innovations in all countries, while the second scenario examined the impact of innovations specific to New Zealand. The contribution of biotechnology to productivity was assessed separately for each commodity, using the original dataset (Kaye-Blake et al., 2005). For each commodity in the model, the analysis calculated the change in producer prices and total producer returns (price x quantity). The modelling results conformed to expectations. In the first scenario, a worldwide reduction in productivity in the primary sector led market prices to adjust upward in response to the lower production. For the second scenario, the price impacts were smaller for sectors with innovations specific to New Zealand. These changes were then combined with the original, constant-price estimate to calculate price-adjusted figures. The constant price analysis found that the contribution of the biotechnologies was $206 million. The first modelling scenario found that the economic benefit of the biotechnologies was only $19 million because increased productivity reduced commodity prices. The second scenario yielded an economic benefit of $191 million, suggesting that adopting New Zealand specific innovations might not have a large impact on aggregate trade and might have allowed domestic producers to capture much of the increased welfare from innovations. Economic impacts, however, were spread unevenly across the commodities. In both trade scenarios, dairy producers increased producer returns through biotechnology, regardless of how widely the innovations were adopted. Meat producers, on the other hand, improved their returns when the innovations were specific to New Zealand, but were somewhat worse off when the innovations were available worldwide. This research contributes to understanding of the impacts of biotechnology in several ways. First, the productivity impacts were based on empirical findings regarding estimated impacts of actual commercially released biotechnologies; these were estimates of impacts that have actually occurred. Secondly, the productivity effects varied by commodity in the model, so that the impacts on different commodities could be estimated. Finally, by using a disaggregated, multi-commodity model, the cross-effects from resources shifting into other agricultural uses could be captured.

四种生物技术对新西兰农业的估计贡献。对新西兰来说，生物技术的影响是一个重要的考虑因素。该国严重依赖农业生产和出口(农业和林业部，2004年)，并在过去20年中部分依赖现代生物技术来提高生产率(Evenson & Gollin, 2003年;雅各布森和斯考比，1999年;Anderson, Armstrong， & Mitchel, 1985)。最近对农业和生物技术领域的个人进行的一项调查生成了一份全面的产品和工艺清单，这些产品和工艺来自于四种特定的生物技术，在农业中具有商业意义(Kaye-Blake, Saunders, Emanuelsson, Dalziel， & Wreford, 2005)。这项创新研究产生了关于生物技术目前对农业生产实际影响的原始数据，并产生了关于生物技术产品和过程及其对新西兰农业的价值的独特数据集。分析发现，这四种生物技术每年为农业贡献约2.06亿美元。然而，这一分析假设国际价格具有完全弹性，因此新西兰农业生产者将获得生产率提高的好处。关于生产率提高的影响的文献表明，生产率提高带来的利益的分配取决于一项技术被广泛采用的程度。例如，对一个国家的农作物进行基因改良可以使国内生产者以牺牲世界其他地区生产者的利益为代价增加生产者剩余(Frisvold, Sullivan， & Raneses, 2003)。相比之下，如果创新在本国和世界其他地方都被采用，国内农民的境况可能会更糟(Moschini, Lapan， & Sobolevsky, 2000)。该文献还表明，一项新技术的具体影响对其对农业生产者的影响是重要的。例如，提高产量的技术可能不如降低成本的技术对农民有利(Moschini et al.， 2000)。此外，与增加消费者对农产品需求的创新相比，提高具有低需求弹性的商品生产率的创新对农民的好处可能更大(Saunders & Cagatay, 2003)。这些发现是相关的，因为新西兰初级部门的一些特征表明，国际价格的影响可能是重要的。新西兰是一个开放的经济体(农业和林业部，2004年)，也是世界市场的重要出口国，特别是畜牧产品(农业和林业部，2004年;Saunders & Cagatay, 2003)。建立国际价格运动的模型可以采用几种方法。例如，一般均衡GTAP模型(Hertel, 1997)已被用于检验生物技术对生产者和消费者福利的潜在影响，假设采用和消费者接受程度不同(例如，Anderson & Jackson, 2005;Stone, Matysek， & Dolling, 2002)。这些影响也用部分均衡模型进行了分析，特别是源自乌拉圭回合贸易谈判的模型(Roningen, 1997)，如SWOPSIM (Frisvold等人，2003年;Roningen, Dixit, Sullivan， & Hart, 1991)和LTEM (Saunders & Cagatay, 2003)。部分均衡模型特别适合于分析对经济单一部门的影响:它们允许按商品进行实质性分解，并检查导致模型结果的联系(Gaisford & Kerr, 2001)。为了调查生物技术创新对商品价格和农业生产者的可能影响，基于弹性价格的原始研究结果被纳入了世界农产品贸易的部分均衡模型(Cagatay & Saunders, 2003年;Saunders & Cagatay, 2003)。该模型包含19 commodities, inc .