Deutsche Bank  6 月 2 日宏观长篇。
       Asian economies have enjoyed a robust recovery in exports over the past year, supported by stronger growth in the G3 and Chinese economies and a surge of commodity prices that restored demand in other emerging markets. While the latter effect may mean that export growth has peaked, it is quite likely that 2017 will see the strongest export growth in at least six years.
■ An important risk remains, though in a US administration that is openly more sceptical about the benefits of free trade and of multilateral efforts to support it. But while bilateral negotiations may be easier to conduct, this approach is flawed in its suggestion that trade is a zero-sum game of winners and losers and because the elimination of US current account deficits is likely to require domestic policy changes to raise public and private savings rates rather than tariff and other measures that are likely to redirect rather than reduce those deficits.
■ While the US has declined in relative importance as a market for Asian exports, when trade is measured in value added terms the decline has been rather less pronounced than at first appears. Importantly, the US trade deficit with China measured in value added terms is only about half its nominal USD value. If the US were to impose broad trade 'remedies' on Chinese exports they may well find that American firms suffer more than many Chinese firms. And if such measures were applied to China alone, production may simply move to other Asian economies. So trade policy is increasingly difficult in a world of complex manufacturing production networks.
■ But in fact so far US trade policy has been more measured and more reasonable than had been feared – and the administration has show itself to be willing to refrain from severe trade restrictions as long as negotiations are heading in the right direction. So we continue to believe that in the trade sphere, at least, "America First" need not stand in the way of a continued recovery of Asian economic activity.