World Outlook -
Growth recession with high uncertainty

Table of Contents
Global Overview
Growth recession with high uncertainty ........................................ 3
US Equity Strategy
After the confidence correction ........................................................... 10
European Equities
A time to be bold...................................................................................................... 13
Commodities
Commodities and financial market contagion ........................................................... 15
US
Will the economy slip into recession? ................................................................. 17
Japan
Slowdown from Q4 2011 .................................................................. 21
Euroland
Sovereign crisis and economic crisis now synonymous................................................................ 23
Germany: Merkel facing an uphill battle as economy flirts with recession ................................... 25
France: A short trip below the waterline ........................................................................... 26
Italy: In need of a credible, comprehensive strategy ......................... 27
Spain: Too many headwinds................................................................ 28
Smaller EMU economies: Crisis not resolved yet......................................................... 29
UK
The rollercoaster recovery - The UK is highly exposed to the US and the euro area ................................. 30
Other European countries
Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland ................................................... 32
Central and Eastern Europe
Growth starts to stall....................................................................... 34
Peripheral dollar bloc
Weighed down by weakening outlook for major economies ............................ 36
Asia (ex Japan)
Growth is slowing gradually as US/EU demand weakens - rates are on hold for a while; fiscal stimulus is possible ..... 38
China: Downside risk intensifying........................................................... 40
India: Growth slows but no room yet for policy easing ........................................ 41
Latin America
Resilient but slowing due to global headwinds.............................. 42
Brazil: Central Bank tries to preserve growth despite inflation risks .......................... 44
EMEA
Vulnerable to a slowdown in developed markets ................................ 45
Russia: Inflation stages major declines......................................................... 47
Forecast tables
Key Economic Indicators ...................................................... 48
Interest Rates.................................................... 49
Exchange Rates................................................. 50
Long-term Forecasts........................................................ 51