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World Outlook - Soft patch should pass but risks remain

Table of Contents
Global Overview
Soft patch should pass but risks remain ...........................................................................................................................3
Geopolitics
The alliance kaleidoscope …..........................................................................................................................................11
US Equity Strategy
The view at half time ......................................................................................................................................................12
European Equities
Strategically positive, tactically positive ..........................................................................................................................14
Commodities
Hard landings & the shifting energy landscape...............................................................................................................16
US
Will economic growth finally surprise to the upside? .....................................................................................................18
Japan
Economic activity bottomed in April ...............................................................................................................................22
Euroland
‘Muddling through’ the sovereign debt crisis .................................................................................................................24
Germany: Domestic growth to substitute partly for weaker exports..............................................................................26
France: Hard to keep the momentum............................................................................................................................27
Italy: Longing for stronger growth..................................................................................................................................28
Spain: Resisting the pressure.........................................................................................................................................29
Smaller EMU economies: The three unsustainable peripherals are now under programs.............................................30
UK
Slower growth, rates lower for longer - Inflation to prompt modest tightening in 2012 ................................................31
Other European countries
Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland.......................................................................................................................33
Central and Eastern Europe
Worries over Greece exposure cloud the outlook...........................................................................................................35
Peripheral dollar bloc
Near-term soft patch but outlook remains sound ...........................................................................................................37
Asia (ex Japan)
Clouds on the horizon should clear in H2….......................... ………………………………………………………………...39
Latin America
From policy tightening to accommodation .....................................................................................................................41
EMEA
A multi-speed recovery ..................................................................................................................................................43
Forecast tables
Key Economic Indicators................................................................................................................................................45
Interest Rates .................................................................................................................................................................46
Exchange Rates..............................................................................................................................................................47
Long-term Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................48
Contacts ........................................................................................................................................................................49

The world economy has hit headwinds since our last World Outlook three
months ago, and we have marked down our global growth forecast for
2011 as a result, to 4% from 4.3%. We expect emerging markets to
continue to be the main driver of global growth. Developed markets,
most notably the US and Japan, have been buffeted by unfavourable
weather, continued high oil prices and supply chain disruptions caused
by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.


In Asia, we are becoming confident that inflation will soon peak and then
begin to slow. Thus we are less worried than before about significant
further rises in global inflation. Commodity prices are the key driver of
Asian inflation and the recent leveling off of food prices combined with a
sharp fall in oil prices offer some hope that the worst may be behind us,
as Chinese premier Wen Jiabao declared on June 23. With the exception
of India and China, though, monetary policy is still very loose. The Indian
central bank may have to get more aggressive as inflation is still too high.
Chinese credit conditions are painfully tight but if inflation does slow in
the second half of the year we think the authorities will ease credit policy
to avoid a hard landing.