Deutsche Bank 1月19日长篇,41页。
A key theme we focused on for much of 2016 was the drag of low rates on RoA and hence RoE for Asia’s more developed banking systems.If the market continues to believe that global rates will rise then over time this is a fundamental reversal in this long term trend.Under this environment the low RoA banks in Asia that have suffered years of asset yield compression may finally find some relief and continue to perform,at least in the short-term(i.e.Japan and Korea).We are already seeing consensus start to build in stable to rising asset yields which has generated positive EPS upgrades in US rate sensitive markets.Over the past 3 months,it is Korea and Japan that have seen better FY 17E EPS upgrade momentum(c3-8%)whilst ASEAN + India have still been suffering earnings downgrades.