T
ABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive summary 2
Unicom by far the most leveraged to mobile subs 2
Will iPhone make the difference? 2
3G – What do customers think so far? 2
Earnings in line – except for China Telecom 2
Unicom by far the most leveraged to mobile subs 4
Year-to-date trends 4
Customer net add market shares to converge longer term 4
China Unicom most sensitive to changes in forecasts 5
Will iPhone make the difference? 7
International experience 7
Explosive progress so far 7
SingTel in Australia and Singapore 7
iPhone vs oPhone 8
Consumers’ initial attitude towards 3G 10
Higher proportion of customers willing to change to China Unicom 10
China Telecom’s data pricing is a winner 10
China Telecom’s 3G branding is also a winner 10
High speed internet access the most appealing service 10
Earnings changes in line except for China Telecom 11
Subscriber forecast changes 11
China Mobile – in line but target price raised 11
China Telecom – minimal forecast changes 12
China Unicom – updated for Telefonica but little impact 12
China Mobile (Reduce): Expect continued tough going 14
China Telecom (Hold): Mobile turnaround factored in 18
China Unicom (Reduce): Leveraged play 23
Appendix: Sina 3G online survey 27
Analyst team profile 31