Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
Publisher: University Of Chicago Press
1996
ISBN: 0226978915
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

I. THEORIES AND EVIDENCE
1. Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview
2. Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective 20
3. Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations 77
4. Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements 125
5. Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau 164
II. HISTORY AND MEASUREMENT
6. How lrends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction 183
7. Business Cycles and Growth 203
8. The Regularity of Business Cycles 232
9. Econometric Model Simulations and the
Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy 265
III. INDICATORS
10. Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses 283
11. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators 316
12. Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes 357
Phillip Braun
IV. FORECASTING
13. On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions 385
14. An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts 414
15. The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts 444
16. Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts 462
17. Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
with Louis A. Lambros 492
18. The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting 519
References 535
Author Index 577
Subject Index 585
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