光伏产业分析报告 ，希望对大家有用


3 December 2007
Asian solar energy sector
Asian players turning more
competitive
Michael Chou
Research Analyst
(886) 2 2192 2836
michael.chou@db.com
Alan Hellawell
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6240
alan.hellawell@db.com
Steve O'Rourke
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250 8670
stephen.orourke@db.com
Stock-picking environment ahead
We expect Asian solar players to benefit from robust demand and expand market
share on improved supply chain. However, we expect shortage of raw materials to
continue until 1H09. This may lead to more margin pressure for solar players on
rising material costs during 08 and 1H09. We therefore recommend investors to
focus on players with better vertical integration and scale which should deliver
better margins and deserve a valuation premium in the long term. Trina and
Motech are our top picks in the Asian solar energy space.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
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Polysilicon supply Polysilicon demand Supply/demand ratio
Global Markets Research Company
Theme #1 - Substantial market growth
We expect the addressable solar photovoltaics (PV) module market to grow at a
2006-2010 CAGR of 30% to US$27bn in 2010, driven mainly by financial incentives
from governments and the rising demand for alternative energy given high crude
oil prices and environmental concerns.
Theme #2 – Rapid share gain for Asian players
We expect Asian solar photovoltaics (PV) module players to extend their market
share from 8% in 2006 to 33% in 2010 based on improved scope and scale. Asian
solar energy players continue to expand from upstream to downstream products.
We believe this should improve time-to-market and operational efficiency; hence
enabling sustainable market share expansion in the long run.
Theme #3 – Stick to players with vertical integration and scale
We anticipate supply/demand of raw material (polysilicon) to rise to 104%
(moderate oversupply) in 2009 from 85% in 2007. We expect the shortage in raw
material to continue until 1H09, which may lead to an increase in material cost and
more margin pressure in 08 and 1H09. We believe vertical integration is crucial for
sustaining margins and long-term earnings growth. We initiate coverage on five
companies: Trina (Buy; US$40.17), Motech (Buy; NT$249), SAS (Hold; NT$231.5),
Suntech (Hold; US$80), and Yingli (Hold; US$27.87).
Risks
1) Weaker-than-expected end demand for solar energy due to reduced subsidies,
2) Sharper price erosion in solar module prices, which may trigger higher-thanexpected
margin contraction, higher-than-expected price hike in raw material, and
4) Slower-than-expected achievement of vertical integration.