Contents 2
Jackup markets – Utilization bottoming out 4
RDC – Investment case, short and sweet (Arctic Buy – target USD 33) 4
NE – Investment case, short and sweet (Arctic Buy- target USD 50) 4
ESV – Investment case, short and sweet (M .Perform - target USD 48) 5
SCORE – Investment case, short and sweet (M. Perform – target NOK 25) 6
Oil demand to recover in H2/09 and 2010 8
Jackup market overview 11
Supply side – Idle rigs and short backlogs 13
Demand side – Tendering activity picking up at USD 70 oil 18
US GoM – Record low jackup drilling activity and utilization 20
Norway – Closed and strong market with new entrants coming 25
North Sea (ex Norway) – Semi closed concentrated market segment 27
Middle East – Hit by Opec production cuts, awaiting nat. gas demand 30
SE Asia – Proximity to newbuild yard hurting 32
India – Growing market supplied by domestic players 34
W.Africa – Highly cyclical market with demand coming back 36
Med & Black Sea – Fragmented market both for supply and demand 38
Mexico – The only growing market segment globally 40
South America – High utilization, few rigs, few customers 43
China – Local players exclusive 45
Jackup market conclusions and assumptions 46
Rowan Co’s (RDC) – Arctic Buy – target USD 33 48
World’s best jackups at steep discount to replacement cost 48
RDC – Investment case, short and sweet 48
Company overview 48
Backlog 52
Financials 54
Valuation 57
Investment conclusions – Arctic Buy, target 33 64
Noble Corp. (NE) – Arctic Buy – target USD 50 65
Strong floater backlog with jackup kicker 65
NE – Investment case, short and sweet 65
Company overview 65
Backlog 68
Financials 70
Valuation 72
Investment conclusions – Arctic Buy, target USD 50 79
Ensco Int. (ESV) – Market Perform – target USD 48 80
Availability when it hurts the most 80
ESV – Investment case, short and sweet 80
Company overview 80
Backlog 83
Financials 84
Valuation 87
Investment conclusions – Market Perform, target USD 48 93
Scorpion Offshore (SCORE) – Market Perform – target NOK 25 94
Strong backlog, but rich. SDRL takeover most likely end game 94
SCORE – Investment case, short and sweet 94
Company overview 94
Backlog 95
Financials 96
Valuation 99
Investment conclusions – Market Perform, target NOK 25 104
Disclaimer 105
Contact information 108