Table of Contents
Back to value...................................................................................... 3
Upgrading earnings...................................................................................................................3
Commodity review............................................................................ 5
Short-term focus to continue into year-end.................................... 9
A recap.....................................................................................................................................9
Industrial Minerals – Juggling physical vs. financial demand ..... 14
Copper ...................................................................................................................................16
Aluminium..............................................................................................................................18
Nickel .....................................................................................................................................21
Zinc ........................................................................................................................................23
Lead .......................................................................................................................................26
PGMs – A time to be precious........................................................ 28
Overview................................................................................................................................28
Revisions to short-, medium- and long-term rand forecasts ...................................................28
PGM price forecasts ...............................................................................................................28
Platinum – investment demand and a global recovery to drive deficits in 2010 & 2011.........30
Palladium – improving demand outlook overshadowed by stockpiles in the medium-term ...36
Rhodium – substitution fall-out, with little investment demand..............................................39
Method for deriving our long-term price forecasts .................................................................40
Iron Ore............................................................................................. 42
Rising Chinese mining costs lift the pricing outlook. ..............................................................42
The final years of the benchmark system ...............................................................................43
In the shorter term - Chinese iron ore production sensitivity ..................................................43
Steel production nearly at the inflection point.........................................................................45
Economic watch .............................................................................. 48
Recovery gathering some steam............................................................................................48
Equities summary............................................................................ 49
Antofagasta...................................................................................... 54
Aquarius platinum........................................................................... 56
BHP Billiton ...................................................................................... 58
Boliden.............................................................................................. 60
Ferrexpo Plc ..................................................................................... 62
Kazakhmys ....................................................................................... 64
Lonmin.............................................................................................. 66
Norsk Hydro ..................................................................................... 68
Nyrstar.............................................................................................. 70
Rio Tinto ........................................................................................... 72
Vedanta Resources.......................................................................... 74