China needs to grow at 6.5% over the next two years in order to
deliver on its millennial growth ambitions of doubling GDP and
income by 2020 from 2010 levels
 Implementing structural reforms to lift productivity while containing
systemic risks and making growth greener, fairer and more
sustainable will have a marked impact on global commodities
 The drive behind a positive outlook for electric vehicle demand is
propping up sentiment for base and speciality metals
Growth in China to remain steady
HSBC’s China economists believe that unlike in the past few years when
growth was supported by infrastructure investment and the housing
market upturn, the recovery this time around is much more broad-based.
Crucially, it is driven by the private sector, which accounts for over 70% of
economic activity on a variety of metrics. Reforming overcapacity
industries, de-risking the financial system by strengthening financial
regulations and deleveraging state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are key
focal areas. The team also expects Beijing to introduce tougher controls
on pollution and boost green investment (see China’s 19th Party
Congress, 20 September 2017). As recently demonstrated, these
measures are likely to have an impact on base and bulk demand.
EV euphoria
Copper, lithium and cobalt have been singled out as metals most likely to
benefit from demand growth in electric vehicle sales. HSBC’s Auto’s team
expects market penetration of 30% by 2030, at the expense of cars with
an internal combustion engine (see Disruptive threats: Carmakers versus
new entrants, 19 September 2017). While PGM demand is buffered by
hybridisation, rising emission standards in emerging markets and the
expected growth in heavy duty diesel demand, market sentiment has been
influenced by the wave of EV newsflow.
Key price changes: We adjust our medium-term estimates for
aluminium, zinc and manganese ore. All LT prices are unchanged.