EM Local Rates Monitor
Key Economic Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
EM Fixed Income Trade Recommendations ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Market Overview .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4
EM short end rates and EM Fixed Income Scorecard ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
What is priced – EMEA– meeting by meeting ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
What is priced – LatAm – meeting by meeting ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
EM short-end rates – where is the value ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10
Interest rate swaps / Cross currency swaps across EM ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
EM Inflation linked bonds and real rates ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
EMEA and LatAm Inflation .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
EMEA and LatAm debt outstanding ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18
EMEA issuances .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19
EM bond yield forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Non-domestic holdings across EM government bonds ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
External sensitivity: Betas in 10Y EM local bonds vs 10Y-US treasuries .......................................................................................................................................................................... 26