Petrobras Deepwater Rig Expansion: A Tender
to Remember
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Historic tender. Petrobras has commenced its tender for 28 deepwater
newbuilds in 3 bid packages subject to local content rules and construction
in Brazil. The packages include: i) 7 10,000 ft drillships to be owned by
PBR and built at a single yard, ii) 2 deepwater rigs (drillships or semis) to
be owned by PBR, and iii) 19 deepwater rigs to be constructed by drilling
contractors and chartered to PBR, with a maximum of 4 rigs per contractor.
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Timing. Bids under the tender are due by early March 2010. In package 1,
PBR has set a delivery date of 48 months for the first drillship and 58
months for the 2nd unit, with the delivery gap falling to 8 months between
the 3rd and 7th newbuilds. PBR is requesting a shorter 40 month delivery for
package 2, with each rig expected to be built at a separate shipyard. Under
package 3, PBR is requesting delivery of the first rig 48 months after
contract award, with a 10 month gap for the second unit, and 8 month gap
thereafter. PBR’s general timetable includes delivery of all units by 2017-18.
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Local content rules. In conjunction with the tender, PBR is requiring
construction of all rigs in Brazil. For drilling equipment under package 1,
local content starts at 20% for the first drillship, rising to 40% for the next 2
rigs, and 50% for the final 3 rigs. We believe similar local content rules are
in effect for packages 2 and 3 of the 28 rig tender.
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We expect cautious approach from U.S. drillers. While drillers are
intrigued by the long-term opportunity set in Brazil, we would expect a
cautious approach related to the tender unless there are opportunities to
hedge construction and currency risk through fixed price contracts given well
chronicled cost overruns on recent production semisubmersible construction
projects in Brazil. The P-51 production platform, which was built in Brazil
with 75% local content by a Keppel FELS-Technip consortium, was
delivered in November 2008 at a cost of $1 billion, or 20% above the original
$830 MM budget. Meanwhile, the P-52 platform was delivered at a cost of
$1.1 billion, or 21% above the original $906 MM cost. Finally, the Barracuda-
Caratinga development was an approximate $800 MM black eye for KBR.
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Implications for shipyards. In anticipation of the large tender, several
Asian shipyards have made or are considering investments in Brazilian
yards. There are 3 shipyards that are largely equipped to construct
drillships, while further investments are possible at several existing yards or
through greenfield projects. CS’s Asian Research team believes the
Singaporean yards could be at a competitive disadvantage for the first 7
drillship awards, while anticipating strong competition for the remaining 21
rigs. In order to facilitate construction of new shipyard facilities, the
Brazilian government plans to provide $2.3 billion in funding through a
naval construction fund.