英文文献：Promoting Sustainable Pro-Poor Growth in Rwandan Agriculture: What are the Policy Options?-在卢旺达促进有利于穷人的可持续农业增长:有哪些政策选择?在卢旺达促进有利于穷人的可持续农业增长:有哪些政策选择?2000年，作为其增长和减贫战略的一部分，卢旺达政府制定了一个目标，即到2020年将人均收入从230美元提高到900美元，并将贫困率减半
英文文献作者：Morris, Michael L.,Drake, Liz,Ezemenari, Kene,Diao, Xinshen
英文文献摘要：
In 2000, as part of its strategy for growth and poverty reduction, the Government of Rwanda set a goal to increase per capita income from US$230 to US$900 and halve the incidence of poverty by 2020. Two years after those targets were established Rwanda's first Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) projected that GDP growth in the range of 6 to 7 percent would be needed over the long term for those targets to be realized. The principal sources of growth in the short to medium term were to be the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, with agricultural projected to start at 5.2 percent and accelerate over the period due to productivity improvements. Manufacturing growth was projected to rise sharply to 11.5 percent, based on the expansion of manufacturing capacity in agro-processing, and then slow to a more sustainable level of 7 percent. Between 1995 and 2005, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent as the economy recovered from the effects of the 1994 genocide. Real GDP growth is now slowing, however. Between 2001 and 2005, average annual GDP growth averaged only 5.2 percent. If growth continues below 6 percent, this will be insufficient to reach Government's development targets. Government therefore needs to quickly put in place policies to accelerate growth. Transforming the agriculture sector will be a critical element of any growth strategy. Agriculture accounts for 35-40 percent of GDP, and employs around 80 percent of the population. It is also the main source of foreign exchange, and is the primary source of inputs for the manufacturing sector. Yet agricultural growth has been disappointing. Between 2001 and 2005, agricultural growth averaged 4.2 percent per year, below the target range of 5 to 8 percent set out in the PRSP. In recognition of the need to stimulate further sustained growth in agriculture, the government is now poised to identify and prioritize the key interventions. This paper aims to assist government in prioritizing the key measures by examining how the level of agricultural growth needed to achieve the government's policy objectives can be achieved. Some in Rwanda advocate the promotion of export crops, both traditional export crops (e.g., coffee, tea, pyrethrum, hides and skins) and non-traditional export crops (e.g., cut flowers, fruits, vegetables, essential oils, vanilla, silk, macadamia). Others argue that agricultural growth can best be stimulated in the short- to medium-term by increasing productivity in food staples, both crops and livestock. This debate mirrors those ongoing in many other developing countries, in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere. An economy-wide, multi-market model (REMM) was developed to test the likely payoffs to alternative agricultural development strategies. The REMM is disaggregated to the sub-national (provincial) level and includes 30 agricultural sectors (commodities) and two aggregate non-agricultural sectors. Eight household types are identified within each province according to size of landholding and gender of household head. The economy-wide model is linked to a micro-simulation model that includes all households sampled in a nationally representative survey (1999-2001 Household Living Condition Survey). The macro-micro linkage framework permits assessment of the likely impacts of alternative policy scenarios on growth, incomes and poverty, and food security at national, sub-national, and household group levels. The model was first used to simulate a base run scenario representing the "business as usual" option, under which agricultural and non-agricultural growth are assumed to continue along current trends. Alternative growth scenarios were later evaluated relative to this baseline. The modelling results show that business as usual is not an option if Rwanda is to meet its national development targets, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the targets agreed to under the New Economic Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). The base run scenario highlights that a continuation of current policies will bring about a modest reduction in the national poverty rate, but the absolute number of people living below the poverty line will increase because of population growth. Food self-sufficiency at the national level will be eroded in the face of demographic pressure and rising food imports. The simulations conducted using the REMM indicate that rapid and sustainable growth in Rwanda's agricultural sector is achievable only if the productivity, profitability, and competitiveness of agriculture is improved. Therefore, the priority measures identified focus on increasing investments in land and water resources, strengthening extension, promoting the performance of both domestic and export markets. Key to this will be strengthening support to producer organizations. The simulations produced a number of insights to inform policy design: - Agriculture has the potential to be a leading engine of growth for Rwanda's economy over the short to medium term - Within agriculture, the main drivers of growth will be food staples, including livestock. - Staple-led growth is more pro-poor than export-led growth. - Growth in staples will reduce the nation's food deficit, but it will not eliminate imports of all commodities. - Growth in agricultural exports will help to reduce the total trade deficit, but it will not be able to eliminate it completely. - Agricultural growth will contribute to the attainment of the first MDG of halving poverty by 2015, but agricultural growth alone will not to be sufficient. These findings from Rwanda are relevant for the many other developing countries, in sub-Saharan Africa and also in other regions, in which policy makers are struggling to unlock the power of agriculture to serve as a driver of growth and poverty reduction. In recent years, much attention has focused on boosting agricultural growth by promoting the development of high-value export crops. The REMM simulation results serve as a reminder that in agrarian economies in which a large proportion of rural households continue to engage in production of food staples destined for home consumption, investments aimed at raising the productivity of food staples are likely to have a much greater impact in the short to medium term in fostering broad-based, pro-poor growth.

在制定这些目标两年后，卢旺达的第一份减贫战略文件(PRSP)预测，要实现这些目标，长期国内生产总值(GDP)增长率需要达到6%至7%。在中短期内，经济增长的主要来源是农业和制造业，农业预计将以5.2%的增长率开始，并由于生产率的提高而在此期间加速增长。基于农业加工制造业能力的扩大，预计制造业增长将大幅上升至11.5%，然后放缓至更可持续的7%。从1995年到2005年，随着经济从1994年种族灭绝的影响中恢复过来，实际国内生产总值以年均10%的速度增长。然而，实际GDP增长正在放缓。在2001年到2005年之间，年均GDP增长率仅为5.2%。如果增长率继续低于6%，这将不足以实现政府的发展目标。因此，政府需要迅速实施加速增长的政策。转变农业部门将是任何增长战略的关键因素。农业占GDP的35- 40%，并雇用了约80%的人口。它也是外汇的主要来源，是制造业部门投入的主要来源。然而，农业增长一直令人失望。2001年至2005年，农业年平均增长率为4.2%，低于减贫战略文件中设定的5%至8%的目标范围。鉴于有必要进一步刺激农业持续增长，政府现在准备确定关键干预措施并确定其优先次序。本文旨在通过研究如何实现政府的政策目标所需的农业增长水平，帮助政府确定关键措施的优先次序。卢旺达有些人主张促进出口作物，包括传统出口作物(如咖啡、茶、除虫菊酯、兽皮)和非传统出口作物(如切花、水果、蔬菜、精油、香草、丝绸、夏威夷坚果)。另一些人认为，通过提高主要粮食作物和牲畜的生产率，可以在中短期内最好地刺激农业增长。这场辩论反映了正在撒哈拉以南非洲和其他地区许多发展中国家进行的辩论。一个经济范围的，多市场的模型(REMM)被开发来测试替代农业发展战略可能的回报。REMM分为国家以下(省)级，包括30个农业部门(商品)和两个总体非农业部门。每个省根据土地拥有的大小和户主的性别确定了八种家庭类型。整个经济模型与一个微观模拟模型相关联，该模型包括在全国代表性调查(1999-2001年家庭生活状况调查)中抽样的所有家庭。宏观微观联系框架允许评估在国家、次国家和家庭群体层面上替代政策方案对增长、收入和贫困以及粮食安全可能产生的影响。该模型首先用于模拟代表“照常营业”选项的基本运行场景，在这种情况下，假定农业和非农业增长将沿着当前趋势继续下去。随后，相对于这个基线对备选增长场景进行了评估。模拟结果表明，如果卢旺达要实现其国家发展目标，包括千年发展目标a，就不能选择一切照旧