【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚太海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：51
        【目录或简介】：
Commodity Shipping
Dry Bulk Momentum Points to
Asian 4Q09 GDP Recovery
Equity Summary: Dry bulk stocks bounced sharply last
week, in line with our predictions, while tanker stocks
were underperforming. The relative outperformance of
dry bulk was driven by a series of relatively positive
earnings calls from SB and EXM (see separate reports)
as well as a firmer tone in the freight market. We see the
near term outlook for tanker equities as challenged,
while the dry bulk stocks should continue to move higher
on increased China optimism.
Tanker Market: Middle East exports into the Atlantic
basin continues at a very pedestrian phase, while Middle
East – Eastbound activity continues at brisk levels.
Unfortunately, this combination is bad news for tanker
owners due to the limited tonne-mile leverage of Asian
trading routes. Tanker rates have tried to rally off
current depressed levels, but continued overcapacity
has so far resulted in the rallies failing to hold and last
week was no exception. VLCC spot rates averaged $24
kpd last week, down from $33 kpd the previous week.
Dry Bulk Market: The dry bulk freight market continued
to firm up last week, with broad gains in both the spot
market and the forward market and across all asset
classes. Sentiment continues to be boosted by
improving appetite out of China and India for raw
materials. In China, the CSIA has now signaled that it
expects iron ore prices to increase in the next round of
talks for 2010-11, a stark contract from its earlier stance
demanding a 40% cut in pricing. Capesize spot rates
averaged $49 kpd last week, up from $43 kpd the
previous week. There were also strong gains for
Panamaxes, up from $16.4 kpd to $18.4 kpd on average
for the week. Furthermore, the rates kept on moving
higher throughout the week, with Capes ending the
week close to $60 kpd.