【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国消费与零售行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PPT
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：

Are Stores Obsolete or Just Disintermediated?
Both, in some cases. We believe eCommerce's continued growth from 4% today to
6%+ share by 2012 (will grow in certain categories faster - electronics, office
products), but stores themselves are not obsolete, especially in Food and Home
Improvement. The Mobile Internet will likely have its greatest impact disintermediating
prices through real-time, location-specific price comparisons. AMZN and SPLS are
well positioned, BBY at risk.
Overstored or Underdemolished?
Underdemolished. We argue that some US retail capacity should be put to another
useful purpose. Spending $15bn to shutter 4% of US retail capacity could free up
$7bn of FCF. Capitalized, this could create $70bn of value for retailers. The
constraints are legal (operating covenants create barriers to exit) and financial as
banks, developers, and vendors rarely lend to shrink their customers' size. HD,
SHLD, and LOW are starting the trend.
Who Owns the Consumer?
Increasingly, private label. We believe private label will play an increasingly important
role for both food retailers and consumer packaged goods manufacturers. Food
retailers will continue to promote private label to enhance margins, increase value
offerings to consumers, create customer loyalty, and generate bargaining power with
manufacturers. Consumer products companies face potential share loss (especially
for weaker tertiary brands – DLM, CHTT) and will need to differentiate their products
and find ways to work with retailers.