【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月巴西地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Brazilian Real Estate
Capitalizing on Low-Income
Housing Growth; Initiating on
MRV and PDG at Overweight
Low-income housing is one of Latin America’s most
powerful secular growth stories, and homebuilders
MRV and PDG are well positioned for it. We expect both
companies to generate greater earnings growth than the
market in the next 1–2 years. The shares look attractively
priced at a discount to market multiples. We see base
case upside of 50% for MRVE3 and 24% for PDGR3.
Favorable industry backdrop as Brazil’s economy
continues to improve. The government’s housing
program should boost mortgages in 2010, especially for
low-income housing. Mortgage lending from private
sector banks is accelerating as benchmark interest rates
hit record lows. Strong demographic dynamics and a
large housing deficit should keep housing demand high.
MRV and PDG well positioned for low-income based
on strong balance sheets, access to capital, talented
management, construction expertise, and a track record
working with low-income mortgage providers. We
expect above-market earnings growth and profitability;
and we have greater visibility on earnings than in the
recent past given strong government support and
cash-rich balance sheets after the recent round of equity
financing. We forecast three-year local currency EPS
CAGR of 35–40% for both companies.
Valuation is attractive. Multiples are at a discount to
the overall market, even though MRV and PDG should
expand profits at higher rates. MSCI Brazil now trades
at 14.6x 2010e P/E, with forecast EPS growth of 40%.
MRV and PDG trade at around 10.0x P/E, with expected
EPS growth of 60–90%. Our price targets are mostly
based on earnings growth and not on multiple expansion.
Risks: Both companies target rapid expansion, which
implies execution risk. Delays in government-funded
programs could slow mortgage flows. The cash cycle is
long, and the companies operate with negative FCF.