【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月南非银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：
As profits trend back to peak levels, banks could
each generate R11-16 bn in excess capital by 2011:
As impairments unwind and asset growth remains
subdued, SA banks are set to generate significant levels
of excess capital over the next few years. This provides
the banks with at least two alternatives: 1) to return the
excess capital to shareholders; or 2) to grow earnings by
deploying the capital at a marginal ROE. Our analysis
attempts to evaluate the scale of the opportunity for
each bank and explores the likely options available to
each for use of the excess capital.
ABSA: more likely a dividend play, with special
dividend yield of up to 18%, on our estimates. Local
deployment of the ~R15bn excess capital we calculate
would prove difficult, and African deployment could be
constrained by conflicts of interest with Barclays.
Standard Bank: our preferred way to play the
African growth theme. We calculate ~R16bn of excess
capital by FY11, which would likely be deployed on the
African continent, in line with company strategy.
Standard’s strong management team, broad EM
presence and strategic partnership with ICBC make it
the most likely growth success story, in our view.
Firstrand: expansion strategy favours deployment
of capital over distribution, but execution risks, given
its small footprint in Africa, could mean a longer lead-time
to delivery of returns.
Nedbank: not the same capital cushion as peers: we
expect it to build on its already strong balance sheet.
We re-iterate our bullish stance on the SA Banks. At
1.8x historical BV, SA Banks trade at par with the EMEA
banks average, but have a solid earnings profile and
potential capital release/deployment, making them an
attractive investment opportunity, in our view.