【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月瑞典银行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：
Growth risks make investors question Nordic's premium valuation
Nordic banks' defensive qualities/low sovereign risk, driven val. to 6.5x PPP (40%
premium vs EU peers). Top-line/NII miss drive EPS downgrades post results and
investors question sector’s premium val. Reiterate UW Nordics ahead of Q1. Corp.
lending -2% QoQ, deposit comp. is emerging and Nordics don't benefit from
benign FICC trends as EU peers, due to low mkt share in int. debt issuance and FX
volatility -50% vs H2 09. Prefer recovery/cost cutting stories (Danske). Avoid
expensive growth stories (Nordea/ DnB NOR bottom-picks ahead of Q1).
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Companies featured
DnB NOR (DNBNOR.OL),NOK68.05 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS Adjusted (NOK)5.38 5.17 6.19
P/E Adjusted (x) 11.7 13.2 11.0
P/B 1.0 1.1 1.0
Nordea (NDA1V.HE),EUR7.26 Sell
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS Adjusted (EUR)0.71 0.39 0.52
P/E Adjusted (x) 10.0 18.7 13.8
P/B 1.3 1.3 1.2
SEB (SEBa.ST),SEK47.40 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS Adjusted (SEK) 1.28 2.06 3.55
P/E Adjusted (x) 34.7 23.0 13.3
P/B 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sv. Handelsbanken (SHBa.ST),SEK214.10 Sell
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS Adjusted (SEK)16.43 13.53 14.67
P/E Adjusted (x) 12.4 15.8 14.6
P/B 1.5 1.5 1.5
Swedbank AB (SWEDa.ST),SEK74.50 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS Adjusted (SEK)-8.18 0.88 5.32
P/E Adjusted (x) -8.7 84.5 14.0
P/B 0.9 1.0 0.9
Danske Bank (DANSKE.CO),DKK143.50 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS Adjusted (DKK) 3.58 8.76 21.31
P/E Adjusted (x) 33.0 16.4 6.7
P/B 0.8 0.9 0.8
Related recent research Date
Cheap Recovery Plays vs Expensive Growth stories
Jan Wolter 2 April 2010
New Rules: The End of Riding the Yield-curve
Jan Wolter 25 January 2010
Global Markets Research Company
Danske Bank, reiterate Buy
See re-rating potential (20% below EU peers at 3.8x PPP/TBV at 1.0x, 11E) and
EPS growth driven by cost cuts/falling LLPs, giving better visibility vs uncertain
growth stories. Market missed big picture; DBe costs 12E unch. vs 07, but rev.
12% higher, driving RoE > CoE, but bank still trade below (stated) book. Expect
volatility Q1; NII fall DKK0.6bn QoQ / high tax rate negative. Cost/LLP fall positives.
SEB: reiterate Hold
Headwinds Q1 and bank miss SEK10bn/qtr rev. indicated Q4, but issues well
flagged. Corp. lending -3% QoQ, deposit comp. prevents NII rebound. SEB don’t
see same benign FICC trend as EU peers; don’t have high market share in int. debt
issuance, Nordic FX vol. halved YTD and bond trading -40% QoQ. Selling German
Retail pos. and add 1-2% to RoE, DBe.
Swedbank: reiterate Hold
Q1 is binary: positive catalyst if bank turns into profit and tighter credit spreads
make funding bear-case less credible. Neg. catalysts; street overest. core earnings
and underest. cost to term out. Q1 bank raised 70% of 2010 refin. need, and CEO
mid-April raised red flag on NII. Don’t see profit Q1. Poor risk/reward ahead of Q1.
DnB NOR: reiterate Hold
Bank is a place to hide, given low sovereign risk and val. at 1.1x TBV, 11E, but
moving from defensive play to growth story may not benefit share perf. Risk to
margins/growth Q1/2010. Benign 09 trends are in reverse; FX vol. more than
halved YTD and corp. lending is poor. Margin risk Q1: deposit comp. accel. as new
rules drive Savingsbanks to chase deposits. DnB NOR bottom-pick as results idea.
Bottom picks: SHB reiterate Sell and Nordea reiterate Sell
Results cast a doubt on SHB growth story, but don’t see material downside risk
Q1. Defensive qualities support high val., but EPS growth (DBe -1% EPS/-4% PPP
CAGR 10E-12E), doesn’t warrant EU’s 2nd highest PPP-mult of 8.9x, 11E. Don’t
see buy-backs 2010, despite asking for mandate on AGM. Nordea is well placed
to gain market shares LT, but DBe of 3% EPS/-3% PPP CAGR 10-12E doesn’t
support PPP mult. of 7.0x 11E (EU’s 4th highest). Nordea bottom-pick ahead of
Q1. See cons. EPS downgrades post Q1, due to NII fall >EUR100m QoQ and cost
growth 7% YoY, well above 4% guidance.
SOTP-based valuation for Nordics based on sustainable RoE/growth and CoE
Risks: macroeconomic developments in the Nordics, credit quality, margin
pressure and new regulation (see risks/valuation in company sections). This report
contains rating, target price and estimate changes for companies under coverage;
see Figure 1 on page 3 for details.

Table of Contents
Executive summary ..................................................................................... 3
Poor Q1 risk/reward, driven by weak top-lines ...................................................... 7
Company section........................................................................................ 8
Danske Bank ............................................................................................. 9
Key points ................................................................................................................................9
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................12
DnB NOR............................................................................................... 14
Key points ...............................................................................................................................14
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................17
Handelsbanken ........................................................................................ 19
Key points ...............................................................................................................................19
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................21
Nordea.................................................................................................. 23
Key points ...............................................................................................................................23
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................25
SEB...................................................................................................... 27
Key points ...............................................................................................................................27
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................29
Swedbank .............................................................................................. 31
Key points ...............................................................................................................................31
Valuation and risk ....................................................................................................................33