【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲、中东、非洲银行业研究报告
        【作者】：荷兰国际集团
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：78
        【目录或简介】：

Contents
Summary 2
Top picks 4
Yapi Kredi 8
Garanti Bank 9
Sberbank 10
PKO BP 11
Two key themes for 2010 12
CE3 banks outlook 22
Russian banks outlook 25
Turkish banks outlook 27
Israeli banks outlook 29
Disclosures Appendix 76

Summary
We favour banks with the potential to increase lending
We like banks which have the ability and willingness to lend and where asset quality is
unlikely to be a prolonged burden. Ideally, we would want to see a combination of low
loan-to-deposit ratios and high capital ratios, together with prospects for a sharp decline
in risk costs. If the worst is indeed behind us and we are back to growth mode, these
banks should be best positioned to benefit from any recovery. In a more challenging
market, they should still do well owing to their defensive characteristics.
Turkish banks rank well on these criteria, particularly Yapi, Garanti and Isbank. So does
Sberbank. Elsewhere, the picture is more mixed. In Poland, banks that needed to
recapitalise did so or are in a process of doing it, and liquidity has also improved.
However, this is accompanied by prospects of still-high risk costs and elevated
valuation multiples. Our preferred large cap Polish bank is PKO. OTP and Komercni
have the capital and liquidity but no balance sheet or earnings growth momentum.
Israeli and Austrian banks score poorly on capital and balance sheet growth.
Overall, our high conviction buys are Garanti, Yapi and Sberbank. However, for a fair
representation of CE3, we would also include PKO. In the small and mid cap segment,
we favour BZ WBK, St Petersburg Bank, TEB, TSKB, Bank of Georgia and Millennium.
The least preferred banks on our list are Pekao, Akbank and VTB.
There are three things we like about Yapi at the moment. First, it provides more direct
exposure to the Turkish consumer entering the new credit cycle. Second, the valuation
is compelling. The stock is trading at 1.6x P/BV and 8.8x PER on our 2010
assumptions. Third, the stock is under owned, while Garanti is widely-held by
institutional money managers.
Growing revenues for Garanti will be a challenge this year, but other P&L items should
offset. The stock is trading at 1.7x book and 9.0x PER (2010F). Divesting the remaining
stake in insurance is a source of upside risk. In the event both Garanti and Eureko
exercise the options due to expire at the end of June, 2010 earnings would be boosted
by as much as 20%, on our assumptions.
We like Sberbank’s operating earnings power, cost and revenue restructuring potential
and the long-term outlook for asset growth, plus sound capitalisation and funding.
Valuations are not demanding in a historical context. We forecast ROE returning to
20%-plus as early as 2011, which makes a P/BV of 1.9x look attractive. The stock is
trading at just under 10x 2011F PER.
We like the strong position of PKO in mortgage loans, which we believe to be the
fastest growing segment in the short and medium-term. Risk control has room for
improvement, but after relatively heavy provisioning in 2009, the outlook is now better.
The bank has a strong capital and liquidity position and it seems to be willing to utilise
it, while we are not sure if this is the case for other large cap CE3 banks.