中金公司-2010年证券行业投资策略

目录
传统业务将进入稳定增长期 ...............................................................................................................4
目前盈利模式下 10 年证券行业业绩难以大幅增长..............................................................................4
经纪业务大幅增长概率较低..............................................................................................................8
目前盈利模式下自营业务长期投资收益率将难以超过 10%................................................................12
投资银行业务结构继续优化............................................................................................................13
资产管理业务贡献小幅提升............................................................................................................14
创新业务成为优化盈利模式的主要途径 .............................................................................................16
创新业务将彻底改变业务结构并明显提升资产运用效率....................................................................16
融资融券渐进式的推出方式使业绩长期增长可期..............................................................................18
股指期货对业绩增量贡献约为 10%.................................................................................................21
证券公司估值及评级.......................................................................................................................23
“融资潮”将极大地改变经纪业务为主的价值导向...........................................................................23
目前盈利模式下区间交易成为主要投资策略.....................................................................................23
创新业务一旦推出将带来行业性重估机会........................................................................................23
中信证券(600030/30.11元): 推荐................................................................................................27
海通证券(600837/15.58元): 上调评级至审慎推荐..........................................................................32
长江证券(000783/18.16元): 中性................................................................................................35
宏源证券(000562/24.02元): 中性................................................................................................38
国元证券(000728/20.23元): 中性................................................................................................41
东北证券(000686/40.79元): 推荐................................................................................................44