【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚太计算机硬件行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：

Investment strategy: The latest Oct. MB/NB & handset
PCB shipments and guidance for 4Q support our view
that 1Q10e is likely to beat seasonality due to a
below-normal 4Q09 pickup. Poor order visibility and low
confidence should result in controlled inventory,
supply-chain caution and improved efficiency. This
implies limited de-stocking risks even if sell-through is
below expectation and increases the likelihood of a
better 1Q10 due to demand recovery for Chinese New
Year (CNY) and new products/platforms ramp. Our
picks remain AAC, Acer, Hon Hai, HTC & Unimicron.
Oct. MB miss; healthy trend in NB intact: The top
four MB makers’ Oct. shipments (-18% MoM/YoY) were
11% below forecasts due to demand cool-off in Europe
& China and inventory caution in channels. We project a
4% MoM drop in Nov and cut 4Q shipment forecasts by
14% (-19% QoQ). We expect a drop of only 1% in 1Q10
off in 4Q09’s low base as demand picks up for the CNY
holidays & Intel new chipsets ramp. Oct. NB shipments
were 1% better than expected (+8%MoM /+16% YoY).
We fine-tune 4Q NB shipment growth estimates to 9%
QoQ from 8% to factor in better Oct. shipments, albeit
below seasonality off high base. We expect a
smaller-than-seasonal decline of 10% QoQ in 1Q in view
of healthy inventory level and Intel’s new product launch.
Oct handset below; lower 4Q: October shipments of
the top four handset PCB makers were 9% below
forecasts, (-3%MoM/-6%YoY). Momentum appears to
have weakened across the board in 2H of October post
new model stocking, implying strict inventory control in
the supply chain. Utilization lowered to 80%-90% while
visibility shortened to just four weeks due to the limited
demand outlook for December’s holiday period.
Momentum slowed at all handset brands except for the
restocking strength at China handset market post long
holidays in early October. With likely flat Nov and slower
Dec, we reduce our forecast for 4Q handset PCB
shipments to flat QoQ (+24% YoY) from +7%.