【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月日本汽车零部件行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：112
        【目录或简介】：
We maintain our Bearish stance on the auto and auto parts sector for three
main reasons: (1) we think share price valuations are undergoing a pivotal
reorientation from cost-cutting to sustainable levels of earnings; (2) we expect
operating margins at the majority of companies to reach only half their
historical highs even in FY2010, and (3) the sector (auto and auto parts
companies in our coverage) trades at a demanding average P/E of 20x on our
FY2010 forecasts. We also think it is worth recognizing that valuations may
contract because absolute levels of operating profit are low, thereby making
profits more sensitive than in the past to a 1% movement in exchange rates.
• Individual stocks: We recommend companies with emerging market
exposure
Sustainable top-line growth in emerging markets is an important factor behind
our investment ratings. Among individual stocks, we rate Nissan Motor
(7201), Honda Motor (7267), Toyota Boshoku (3116) and TS Tech (7313)
Overweight. We maintain Toyota Motor (7203) at Underweight because we
think earnings will be slow to recover in FY2010. We rate Denso (6902) and
Aisin Seiki (7259) Neutral, and think both could outperform Toyota if demand
in developed nations such as the U.S. picks up more than we anticipate.
• Earnings at Toyota suppliers poised for growth in 2H
We expect worldwide Toyota brand production to increase 29% HoH to 4.058
million vehicles in 2H FY2009 (of which domestic production accounts for
1.84 million vehicles, up 35% HoH) from 3.141 million vehicles in 1H
(domestic production: 1.36 million). We base this estimated rise in production
mainly on a recovery in retail sales volume and inventory-building of over
200,000 vehicles. We think margins at Toyota suppliers in 2H FY2009 will far
exceed margins at Toyota itself because we see a sharp recovery in domestic
output, which makes a big contribution to suppliers’ earnings, and a relatively
small impact from yen appreciation. However, we expect output to reach 7.77
million vehicles in FY2010, thus failing to double the level we forecast in 2H
FY2009, so we think investors need to watch out for a significant loss of pace
in margin improvement.