【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本汽车零部件行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：

Pick up Toyota parts suppliers if stocks correct on
guidance: F3/11 guidance from Toyota suppliers will
likely be more conservative than usual, given Toyota
recall impact uncertainty. But look to buy into corrections,
as Toyota has lost little US market share and continues
to boost output in China. We anticipate fairly weak
guidance from Denso, due to R&D cost snapping back
and high raw material costs, and Toyota Boshoku, due
to slow improvement in N. America. We cut F3/11 profit
for both. In contrast, we expect relatively upbeat
guidance from Aisin Seiki, on higher orders for AT parts
in China, and from Koito Mfg., on increased share of the
domestic headlamp market, and nudge up estimates.
We reiterate our OW on Aisin Seiki and Toyota Boshoku,
given upside to PTs and potential for growth in China.
Expect solid F3/11 guidance from independents;
near-term outlook positive: These include (1) NHK
Spring, on increased demand and market share in HDD
suspensions, growth in sales of seats to FHI and leaf
springs for trucks, (2) Takata, on a recovery in demand
in N. America (high ratio of sales), increased use of
airbags, lower product guarantee costs, (3) NOK, on
stronger FPC sales due to HDD demand growth, output
increase to meet new orders, better auto seal earnings,
and (4) Exedy, on higher orders for torque converters
for ATs and Asian production of MT and motorcycle
clutches. Still EW on these, but we raise estimates/PTs
– near-term investment appeal in the reporting season.
Nissan/Honda affiliates to also benefit from
recovery in auto production: We keep our F3/11 profit
forecast for Nissan affiliate Calsonic Kansei (buoyed
by output increase in China, Thailand), but raise PT on
increased probability of turn to profit in F3/11; rating
stays at OW. We raise profit estimates and PT for
Honda-affiliated Keihin, with benefit from domestic plant
restructuring and growth in motorcycle parts. But we
stay EW as outperformance has priced in expectations
of earnings growth.