【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月欧洲重工业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：64
        【目录或简介】：
Capital Goods
Recovery a Reality, and It’s
Mostly Priced In
Sandvik remains our top pick: Leading and
macroeconomic indicators are pointing to volume
recovery in 4Q09 and 2010. Mining capex is already on
the rise and auto production data point to a recovery in
1H10 volumes. In this organic growth environment, we
maintain Sandvik (OW) as our top pick, as we think its
outlook is much more attractive than is currently being
priced in driven by 1) larger exposure to mining capex
recovery (>40% of sales spread between tooling and
SMC versus 30% on average for Atlas and Metso); 2)
cost cutting actions taken by Sandvik’s management
after poor 2009 performance as well as 3) capacity
increases in steam tubes for nuclear applications, which
will transform Sandvik SMT’s profitability.
Mining capex to stage a comeback, surprising to the
upside: Most of the large mining players have
announced higher capex budgets, but in our opinion, the
market has not fully priced in the potential benefits for
mining-exposed companies in terms of organic growth.
In our base case, we factor in a robust recovery in
mining capex in 2010 based on our proprietary channel
checks as well as an extensive analysis of what mining
companies have already announced.
Consensus forecasts too bearish in 2010: For the
mechanicals sector, consensus continues to see limited
EPS growth in 2010, in contrast to our expectation of
10-15% growth. While some companies do indeed have
longer backlogs that will hamper recovery progress, we
find it hard to see how sector EPS can fail to grow as the
recovery gathers momentum after a weak 2009.
Largely priced in; but Sandvik and Atlas offer
upside. We are EW on Assa as we think cost cuts will
continue to help profitability short term, but we’re not
bullish due to US institutional/ non residential and raw
material/FX headwinds in 2010. With the sector at 17x
2010e P/E and 13x EV/EBIT, valuation already
discounts a recovery. Big share price moves will have to
come from top line and upward earnings revisions.