【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国重工业研究报告
        【作者】：BUCKINGHAM RESEARCH GROUP
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：

While the market is treating all machinery names essentially the same there are key
differences in timing of when we can hit cyclical peak. Looking at past cycles gives us some
clues about how the next one will unfold, however the big complication is that some cycles
were clearly already running their course when the credit implosion happened and some
were still strong.
≠ In this update, we are only going to focus on 2 high conviction areas; the Truck cycle and
the Industrial Production cycle.
≠ As a result of this study we are upgrading Parker Hannifin (PH, $56.09) to Accumulate from
Neutral with a $65 one year target based on 18X our calendar 2011 EPS estimate of $3.60
(fiscal June ’11 EPS estimate $3). We estimate peak of cycle EPS power at Parker Hannifin
of $8 in 2015 and assign a peak P/E multiple of 15.5X (in line with history) producing an
eventual price target of $124 in 2014.
≠ We are upgrading PACCAR (PCAR, $39.38) to an Accumulate rating from Neutral with a
$46 one year price target based on 20X our $2 EPS estimate in 2011 plus the $6/ share in
net cash on the balance sheet. We estimate peak of cycle EPS at PACCAR of $4.70 by
2014 and assign a 15X P/E multiple implying a longer term price potential of $71 by 2013.
≠ We maintain our Strong Buy rating on ITW (ITW, $50.60) with a $65 one year price target
based on a 17.3X P/E on our 2011 EPS estimate of $3.75. Longer term, by say 2015, we
believe that ITW is poised to be earning closer to $5 or more and applying a historic 18X
P/E yields a longer term price objective of $90.
≠ Maintain our Accumulate rating on Cummins (CMI, $48.51) and raise our 1 year price target
from $51 to $55 based on 19X our 2011 EPS estimate of $2.85. The multiple here is a little
higher than we would usually be comfortable with, however we are in the midst of an
important technology transition which should meaningfully boost the company’s earnings
power longer term. We estimate that Cummins can earn $6.75 of earnings at the next
cyclical peak which we believe will be around 2015. Using a 13X P/E yields a longer term
price objective of $88.
≠ We are raising our rating on Kennametal (KMT, $25.10) to Neutral from Underperform as
earnings recovery is coming in a little better than we had expected. We are changing our
price target from $22 to no price target which is consistent with our policy on Neutral-rated
stocks. We believe that longer term Kennametal has about $3.35 of peak earnings power
by 2015 and can garner a 14X peak P/E multiple resulting in a $47 price objective by 2014.