【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月马来西亚金融行业研究报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：29
        【目录或简介】：

Fundamentals shining through
A solid third quarter
In the recently concluded results season for the three months ended September,
four out of the six banks under our coverage delivered results that beat the
Street’s estimates and two (Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank) were in line. Key
earnings variances resided in lower provisions and stronger non-interest income.
CIMB’s strong fundamentals shone through with stronger performances across
key units with the exception of corporate and investment banking (due to higher
provisions for the international banking portfolio ex-ASEAN).
Positives aplenty
Industry pre-provision profit was marginally weaker (-1.1% q-q), dragged down by
lower non-interest income after an exceptionally strong second quarter for CIMB
and Maybank. The robust 4.9% q-q growth in industry net interest income and
well-contained overhead expenses (+2.5% q-q) are encouraging. Industry net
interest margin (NIM) improved to its one-year high of 2.77% (+5bp q-q; +12bp yy),
boosted by CIMB and Maybank that benefited from their overseas operations.
During the quarter under review, industry new NPL formation declined, which
explains a lower industry credit charge-off rate of 68bp (2Q09: 75bp).
Positive outlook
We expect industry NIM to improve further, underpinned by: 1) the return of price
rationality for the domestic retail loans (especially housing loans), and 2) stronger
loan traction. As the economy gains a stronger footing, asset quality should
improve further, paving the way for credit charge off to decline further.
CIMB – our top sector pick
We like CIMB for its high operating leverage that will help drive a strong 32.0%
EPS CAGR in FY09-11. The positive structural changes at CIMB-Niaga should
start to bear fruit in 2010. While FY09 earnings is domestic driven, we expect this
to change in FY10 when CIMB-Niaga emerges as the earnings driver.