【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国金融行业研究报告
        【作者】：BUCKINGHAM RESEARCH GROUP
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：73
        【目录或简介】：

OCTOBER ACTIVITY MONITOR
≠ FIXED INCOME – TRADING VOLUMES MIXED: In trading, cash volumes were up 4% in October from
September (attributable to a jump in MBS activity), while interest rate derivative volumes were down 5%
(reflecting a slowdown in Europe after a strong September). Looking at 4QTD, trends are more favorable, with
fixed income cash trading volumes tracking up 9% vs. 3Q, while interest rate derivatives activity is up 5%.
While we do expect a seasonal slowdown in volumes as we move to December, volume trends QTD are
tracking solidly ahead of our forecast for a sequential decline - possibly driving upside to our 4Q forecasts for
the banks and brokers. In addition to solid volumes QTD, 4Q09 fixed income trading revenues will continue to
benefit from tightening credit spreads (down 16% QTD), still wide bid-ask spreads and improving market
backdrop. In FX, while volatility levels are tracking down 2% sequentially QTD, trends appear to be stabilizing
near historical average volatility levels (0.79% QTD vs. historical average of 0.75%). (Exhibits 33-54)
≠ EQUITIES TRADING –INTERNATIONAL DOLLAR VOLUMES STRONG: In equities, dollar volumes
on international exchanges continued to show solid improvement in October, with volumes at their highest
levels since October 2008 (up 10% vs. September). However, domestic cash equities and derivatives were more
in-line with September levels, with cash volumes off 3% sequentially in October and derivatives down 2%.
Looking to the December 4Q, trading volumes are trending up from seasonally slower 3Q levels, with
international dollar volumes tracking up 16% vs. 3Q09 levels, derivatives up 6% and US cash volumes flat.
That said, global equity markets have risen more modestly QTD vs. prior quarters (S&P 500 up 5% vs. 15%+ in
2Q and 3Q), which may limit upside in private equity, asset mgmt., and proprietary trading. (Exhibits 8-32)
≠ GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANKING –M&A REBOUNDS; EQUITY UNDERWRITING REMAINS
STRONG: In investment banking, equity underwriting volumes remain solid during October, with activity
levels flat vs. September levels and up 140% YOY. Of note, high margin IPO volumes reached their highest
levels since December 2007, reflecting stabilizing global equity markets and pent up demand for capital raising.
In debt underwriting, volumes decreased 22% sequentially in October on slower investment grade issuance,
although high yield volumes remained solid (third best month of 2009). Lastly, in advisory, completed M&A
volumes improved 131% in October from very weak September levels (although YOY trends remain decidedly
negative), propelled by the $65bn Pfizer/Wyeth deal. Excluding this transaction, volumes were up 36%. In
announced M&A, volumes remained lackluster, tracking down 17% from September and down 55% YOY. For
4QTD, activity levels are trending ahead of seasonally slower 3Q levels, particularly in higher margin IPOs and
high yield issuance. In addition, M&A volumes are tracking ahead of 3Q levels as some of the larger deals
announced earlier this year close (Pfizer/Wyeth, Merck/Schering, etc). (Exhibits 78-100)
≠ CREDIT – LOANS OUTSTANDING DECLINE; WHILE CREDIT CARD TRENDS STABILIZE: Total
average loans of large domestic banks tracked by the Fed declined 1.2% sequentially in October. On a
sequential basis, commercial lending activity remains weak (loans outstanding down 2% sequentially in
October), negatively impacted by the slow economy and more stringent lending standards. Consumer and real
estate loans outstanding both declined 1% sequentially in October. For the December 4Q09, average loans
outstanding are tracking down 2% vs. 3Q09 (down 11% vs. 4Q08), with negative trends in all segments (C&I
tracking down 5%, consumer off 1% and real estate off 2%. With respect to credit quality, net charge-offs
decreased 54bps sequentially in October, while delinquency trends were up only modestly (due to seasonality),
possibly signaling a stabilization in credit losses and reduced need to build reserves during 4Q09 and into 2010.
(Exhibits 64-77)
≠ TOP PICKS REMAIN BAC, MS, AND STT: In the short-term, the trading environment remains favorable,
which may provide upside to our 4Q09 earnings estimates. Longer-term, with the macro-economic backdrop
showing signs of stabilization/recovery and liquidity returning to the credit markets, we believe the
improvement in the capital markets will continue. We therefore see downside risk declining for large cap
financials, and have growing conviction in improving fundamentals. Top picks remains MS, BAC, and STT.
(Exhibits 2–7)