【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国中小市值上市公司行业投资策略
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：59
        【目录或简介】：

2010 Outlook: Stock picking to outperform
Similar to 2009, stock picking likely dominates in 2010 . . . .
We’re entering 2010 constructive on equities, as the synchronized global GDP
recovery bodes well for earnings power, while global slack argues for stable interest
rates – in other words, a scenario that favors risk assets, with the case further aided
by an anticipated fall in volatility. We believe the Russell 2000 could reach 690
sometime in 2010, for 17% upside from current levels (see Figure 3), with the bulk
of the gains driven by Cyclicals and GDP-sensitive groups (Defensives are only
about 21% of the weight of the Index).
We believe investors should remain more heavily pro-Cyclical in 1H2010,
particularly as M&A is likely to be more prevalent compared to the low levels seen
in 2008 and the mixed activity in 2009. Thus, it favors staying focused on smaller
companies, in our view. Additionally, we believe stock picking will enable managers
to handily outperform the Russell 2000, as many did in 2009.
Our SMid Strategies (detailed later in the report) replicate, to some extent, the
process used by an active manager to identify attractive stocks, with each theme
focusing on either valuations, GARP, contrarian ideas, etc. And as shown in Figure 1
and Figure 2 below, these strategies outperformed the Russell 2000 by 1,200-
4,500bp in 2009, with win ratios in some cases 2,000bp above the Russell 2000 (we
publish the performance statistics of these strategies and stock ideas in our monthly
“SMid-Cap Perspective”).