【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月全球证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：90
        【目录或简介】：
Looking Back & Forward
A Hiccup at the End: The rally in global equities picked up in November with the MSCI AC World Index rising by around 3.2% over the month, despite a strong
selloff in the last week which saw the index shed 1.6%. Macro data out of the US was mixed (the 3Q GDP was revised downwards, retail sales came in weaker than
expected, unemployment jumped to its highest levels since 1983, while the ISM surprised on the upside, CPI came in stronger and home sales rose more than
expectations). Coupled with the news of the Dubai debt crisis, fears of systemic risk led the markets down towards the month-end. We do not believe that Dubai
World’s debt problems pose any major risks to other markets (idiosyncratic rather than systemic).
Amongst regional indices, North America outperformed Emerging Markets, while at a sector level Materials (10.3%), Healthcare (6.8%) and Industrials (5.2%) were
the best performers, while Energy (2.7%) and Financials (1.9%) were the sector laggards.
On balance, the global economic recovery continued to strengthen with signs of improvement in most leading indicators (p.24) and sentiment indices (p.25). There
are increasing signs of divergence in monetary policy across the world, with renewed easing in Japan while the RBA delivered a third consecutive rate hike.
Moreover, a stabilizing global economy has led the markets to begin to price in rate hikes despite central bank rhetoric (p.31).
Europe
European markets were up 1.9% this month, despite a strong pullback over the course of last week (down 3.3%). Materials (11.6%), Healthcare (4%) and Telecom
(4.0%) were the best performing sectors in November, while Financials (-0.1%) and Tech (0.4%) lagged the rest of the index. Among countries, UK (3.4%) Germany
(3.3%) and Russia (2.7%) were the outperformers, while Switzerland fell (-0.3%) this month. Consistent with the de-risking theme, large caps continued to
outperform small caps, while growth outperformed value.
Europe remains cheap relative to the developed world, trading at a discount on a 12-month forward PE basis (p. 12). Valuation dispersion between US and Europe
has narrowed this month with the sector neutral discount down to ~15 % from cycle highs of ~33% (p. 51). Despite a close to 75% rally since the trough in March,
European valuations are not particularly stretched with the composite valuation indicator (CVI) lying close to neutral (pg 52). Among the industry groups, pharma,
energy, and media look cheap, but consumer durables, real estate, and autos look less attractive than usual (pg 53).
Negative/Neutral economy data: Regional surveys disappointed, and sentiment indicators continued to be mixed this month. The pan European PMI Manufacturing
index rose to a 17-month high of 50.7 (vs. 49.3 in September). The ZEW economic sentiment indicator disappointed for a second straight month, plunging below
expectations to 51.8 (vs. 56.9 in the previous month) while the European business and consumer confidence came in-line with expectations and Germany’s IFO
business climate indicator rose slightly. Marginally below expectations, Euro Area Industrial production rose for the fifth straight month with production rising 0.3%
m/m in September and a pickup in Industrial new orders as well. Among countries, most in the region including France, Italy and Spain saw declines in their IP, but
Germany and UK surprised heavily on the upside.
Our European economist Elga Bartsch doesn’t expect a V-shaped recovery and doesn’t change her fundamental view that the recovery will likely remain lackluster.
She believes the current bounce in inventory could potentially set up for disappointment, and a sizeable gap between inventories and orders could potentially be a
warning sign of a double-dip at the turn of the year.