【名称】GS-China Food Industry-prices flash-091208
【日期】09-12-8
【来源】goldman sachs
【简介】
China Food Prices Flash – November 2009
Soft commodity prices
Rice: Domestic ex-warehouse spot price was
-2.7% to Rmb2,673/ton in Nov., +1.1% yoy and
+2.4% ytd.
Wheat: Domestic ex-warehouse spot price was
+2.5% at Rmb2,020/ton in Nov., +18.1% yoy and
+17.4% ytd.
Corn: Domestic ex-warehouse spot price was flat
at Rmb1,670/ton in Nov., +23.7% yoy and +23.7%
ytd.
Soybean: Domestic soybean price +9.7% in Nov.
Soy oil price +2.4%, while soy meal price +4.2%
during the month.
Sugar: Domestic sugar price was +7.1% to Rmb4,500
/ton in Nov., +51.0% yoy and +58.5% ytd.
Food prices
Hog price was +7.6% mom to Rmb12.0/kg. Pork
price was +1.9% to Rmb16.3/kg in November.
Raw milk price increased to about Rmb2.47/kg in
October. Retail fresh milk price increased slightly
to Rmb3.43/500g in October.
Industry news highlights
The Ministry of Finance, NDRC and State
Administration of Grain announced on December
3, 2009, one-off subsidies to soybean processing
companies in the north-eastern area which
purchase domestic soybeans. This is to help
mitigate the impact on domestic soybean farmers
from high import volumes in 2009.
Stock implications
We upgraded China Agri (0606.HK) to Buy from
Neutral on 24 Nov on the back of its improving
outlook on fundamentals and potential asset
restructuring. We reiterate our positive view on
Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK, Buy, Conviction List)
and Yili Industrial (600887.SS, Buy) given
continuous improvement in consumer demand
and better profitability. We also downgraded
Want Want China (0151.HK) and China Foods
(0506.HK) to Neutral from Buy on Nov 24 given
their share prices had reached our respective
target prices.