We dedicate this year-end issue of Greater China
Economics to discussion of China’s economic outlook
for 2010 and beyond. We envisage a ‘Goldilocks
Scenario in 2010’, featuring stronger, more balanced
GDP growth with muted inflationary pressures. Noting
that it would be imprudent to call for a cyclical Goldilocks
scenario in an economy built on a growth model that is
structurally flawed, we argue that the popular concerns
about such structural issues as 'over-investment' and
'under-consumption' in China are overdone and that
China’s growth model is generally sound. We elaborate
on this argument in several reports that we have
published over the last couple of months, including
‘Railways vs. US Government Bonds: Putting China’s
“Over-investment” in Context’, ‘China’s
Under-Consumption Over-stated’, and ‘The Virtues of
'Over-savings': A Post-crisis Reflection on Chinese
Economy’.