【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
China Property
Monthly market intelligence
for October 2009
Danny Bao, CFA
Research Analyst
(+86) 21 3896 2839
danny.bao@db.com
Ling Xu
Research Analyst
(+86) 21 3896 2834
ling.xu@db.com
October sales volume up 84% YoY; new construction growth continues
Residential GFA sales decreased 10.8% MoM due to soft demand during National
Holiday week. Transaction price for October increased 11.6% MoM due to supply
shortages. Tier-I cities showed an average 30% MoM increase in volume. Sales
volume accelerated for the second half of the month, as home buyers took
advantage of tax savings before their expiration by year-end. Meanwhile, new
construction starts increased 57% YoY in October, supported by strong YTD sales.
We expect market supplies to increase after 2Q10.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Market Update
Table of contents
Selling prices .................................................... Page 02
Transaction volume .......................................... Page 04
New supplies.................................................... Page 11
Local residential markets.................................. Page 14
Land supply and demand ................................ Page 24
Policy orientation .............................................. Page 25
Monthly Performance ...................................... Page 28
Valuation Comparison....................................... Page 29
Top picks
China Vanke (200002.SZ),HKD10.30 Buy
Glorious Property (0845.HK),HKD3.65 Buy
China Resources Land (1109.HK),HKD17.96 Sell
Agile Property (3383.HK),HKD10.78 Sell
China & HK NAV discount spread
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Jan-
07
Apr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct-
07
Jan-
08
Apr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct-
08
Jan-
09
Apr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct-
09
China HongKong
Index performance 30/10/2009
Index 1m % 3m % 12m %
HSI 3.8 5.7 55.7
HSCEI 7.7 5.3 93.1
HSP 4.4 0.2 72.9
Coverage 25/11/2009
Company Last price TP Upside
COLI (0688.HK, Hold) 16.88 15.00 -11.14
Vanke-B (200002.SZ, Buy) 10.40 12.30 18.26
CR Land (1109.HK, Sell) 17.96 12.00 -33.18
CG (2007.HK, Hold) 2.99 3.00 0.33
R&F (2777.HK, Hold) 14.06 9.00 -35.98
Agile (3383.HK, Sell) 10.78 8.40 -22.08
Glorious (0845.HK, Buy) 3.73 4.95 32.71
SOL (0272.HK, Hold) 4.70 3.30 -29.79
Franshion (0817.HK, Buy) 2.60 2.95 13.46
Greentown (3900.HK, Hold) 12.14 4.45 -63.34
Forte (2337.HK, Buy) 2.49 2.90 16.47
Upcoming events Date
DB Access China Conference
Beijing 11-14 Jan 2010
Site Visit
Beijing 15 Jan 2010
Global Markets Research Company
January-October 2009 residential GFA sales rose 50.1% YoY
Total residential GFA sales in China for 10M09 reached 609.7msqm, about 25.1%
higher than 10M08. Volumes for 14 major cities accounted for about 29% of total
sales in China. These 14 cities saw average YoY growth of 77.2%, outperforming
the small cities. Chongqing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Beijing were the largest local
markets in terms of sales volume. For 2009, we expect overall sales volume to
increase 50% YoY, hitting a record high of 838msqm. However, we believe it
would be difficult to replicate the same performance next year. For 2010, we
expect sales volume to decline 10% to 755msqm, 9% higher than in 2007.
10M09 new construction YoY change turns positive
Total new construction starts of commodity houses in China in 10M09 reached
814msqm, up 3.3% YoY. This is the first time this year that the cumulative new
construction starts reversed the previous declines. The new construction starts in
October declined 20% MoM but still showed a 55% increase YoY. For 2009, we
expect new construction starts to remain flat, but we expect new construction
starts to increase by 5% next year. However, supply shortage in the short term
should continue to support ASP. Total GFA of land acquired by developers during
the first 10 months reached 241msqm, which is about an 18.7% decline YoY.
We expect policies to take a two-pronged approach in 2010
The policy orientation should be revealed after the Central Economic Workshop, to
be held in late this month, or December. We expect the government to continue
to support the mass market driven by owner-occupied demand, while restraining
investment and speculative purchases. We expect removal of some supportive
measures, such as tax incentives. We anticipate more policy focus on developer’s
land hoarding practice, and new market supplies. A government policy on new
constructions to accelerate development will also boost future supply.
Near-term range trading likely for the sector; remain Underweight
We expect property prices and volumes to remain robust, but we see no positive
catalysts to drive up sector valuation. Investors are likely to pay very close
attention to the ultimate housing policy direction after the workshop. We do not
expect any major negative changes in the current housing policies. Current
valuations have already included the robust volume and price increases in the
sector for 2010. We expect limited upside for the sector. Our top picks are Vanke
B and Glorious Properties on relative valuation. The China property sector has
underperformed the benchmark for 3Q, and we expect this trend to continue in
4Q. We recommend that investors Underweight the sector.