【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月欧洲化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：112
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 4
Outlook and sector summary....................................................................................................4
Summary of stock recommendations .......................................................................................5
Valuation and risks ....................................................................................................................6
Sector outlook ................................................................................... 8
Sector summary – volumes recovering, but pricing more mixed..............................................8
Raw materials increasing, labours cost better managed ........................................................13
The focus on cost cutting continues .......................................................................................15
FX moves now negative..........................................................................................................16
FCF lower for most in 2010 ....................................................................................................18
We expect M&A to increase in 2010 ......................................................................................20
Many dividends will be cut .....................................................................................................24
Sector debt summary – most companies comfortable ...........................................................26
Inventory re-stocking leverage....................................................... 28
Modest re-stocking in 2010 ....................................................................................................28
Previous downturns have been distorted by inventory trends................................................28
Peak margins can quickly occur under strong re-stocking ......................................................30
Upstream inventory data suggest a bottoming but no re-stocking .........................................32
Identifying the EPS and valuation upside from re-stocking .....................................................34
Companies can move close to peak EPS under strong re-stocking ........................................36
Sub-sector summaries .................................................................... 37
Commodity chemicals – improvement expected....................................................................37
Specialty chemicals – be very selective, focus on niche growth ............................................40
Flavours & fragrances – Strong growth expected in 2010 ......................................................42
Industrial gases – improved fundamentals..............................................................................44
Agrochemicals – 2010 should show renewed growth............................................................50
Fertilizers – Volumes should improve materially .....................................................................53
Hybrids – pharmaceutical growth coming through .................................................................57
Sector valuation............................................................................... 59
Valuation 1: Sector valuation multiples still show some value ................................................59
Valuation 2: Peak and mid-cycle analysis still suggests value .................................................60
Valuation 3: Balance sheet values and returns show some value...........................................63
Valuation 4: Historic P/E valuations (compared to the market)................................................64
Valuation 5: Historic P/E valuations (absolute) ........................................................................66
Pension analysis .............................................................................. 70
Top picks for 2010 ........................................................................... 75
Linde ................................................................................................. 76
BASF ................................................................................................. 82
Syngenta .......................................................................................... 88
Lanxess............................................................................................. 92
Macro correlation analysis............................................................ 104