【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
Q4 demand weakness cushioned by soaring ethylene derivative exports
While domestic demand is exhibiting a typical Q4 slowdown, the main headline
continues to be strength in export demand driven by the US feedstock advantage
(natural gas) and weak dollar. We expect export activity to continue thru Q3’10 but
at a slower pace as low-cost competition from the Middle East intensifies. With
feedstock costs on the rise, domestic demand soft and buyers minimizing yearend
inventories, we expect petchem margins to remain under pressure. We
maintain our cautious stance on commodity chemicals producers.
November contract ethylene prices not yet settled
November contract ethylene prices are still not finalized. In October, contract
ethylene prices rose 2.75c/lb to 37.25c/lb. Spot prices rose 3c/lb in November to
32c/lb, following a 0.5c/lb increase the previous month. November was
characterized by steady domestic demand, partly offset by continued strong
export demand. Following higher feedstock costs, we expect November contract
ethylene prices to settle at ~40c/lb, up 2.75c/lb.
Jump in ethane prices squeezes ethylene margins
Average ethylene production costs rose 4c/lb in November to 33c/lb (up 39%
YoY), reflecting a 3% increase in oil and a 16% jump in natural gas. Crude oil
averaged $78/bbl vs. $76/bbl in October. Ethane rose 12c/gal (or 21%) to 69c/gal,
reflecting tightening supplies. Spot ethylene margins fell to -1.5c/lb from
breakeven the previous month as spot prices failed to keep pace with the 4c/lb
increase in production costs. Assuming contract ethylene prices settle at 40c/lb,
contract ethylene margins would be down 1.5c/lb to 5.5c/lb, while average
ethylene margins would be 1.5c/lb, roughly half the level of October. With
domestic demand lackluster and input costs escalating, we expect ethylene
margins to remain below 2c/lb in December.
November polyethylene (PE) prices increases do not stick
Due to weak domestic demand, a 4-5c/lb price increase for November was not
implemented despite record export levels and rising production costs (up ~5c/lb in
November). PE margins fell 3c/lb to 10c/lb during the month as prices lagged
higher costs. With buyers minimizing inventories at year-end and sellers rarely able
to raise prices in December due to annual contract negotiations, prospects for a
3c/lb price increase in December are not favorable. With production costs on the
rise, we expect PE margins to remain under pressure.
Acetic acid prices on the rise, driven by higher methanol costs
Q4 US acetic acid prices increased to 51-55c/lb, up from 48-52c/lb in Q3, reflecting
higher methanol costs. VAM demand into coatings and adhesives remained
steady due to a slightly improved housing sector and low inventories. In China,
acetic acid prices fell $10/t to $410-$425/t. While heavy snowfall in North China
slowed sales in the first half of the month, unplanned outages tightened supplies
in the second half. Higher methanol prices will likely support higher acetic acid
prices in December. In Saudi Arabia, Sipchem started up its 460K tpy (3.3% of
global capacity) acetic acid unit; merchant shipments are expected in January.