【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：


We see stronger top-line recovery through 2012
than consensus: As expected, industrial gas stocks
have been relatively resilient through the economic
downturn. However, new contracts have obscured
some of the underlying decline, and we believe
consensus underestimates the cyclical upside as the
economy recovers. We are initiating coverage of the
two major US industrial gases companies: Air Products
(Overweight) and Praxair (Equal-weight). We think both
are among the highest-quality and best-managed US
chemicals companies. We prefer APD today based on
valuation and the potential accretion of the Airgas deal;
we also believe the shares offer slightly more “recovery
potential,” than do PX shares. Please see our individual
company reports, published today.
Recovery story in a traditionally defensive segment.
Unexpected revenues should ease investor concerns
about a gap in top line growth. Both APD’s and PX’s
revenue fell by 8% in 2009, but based on capex, we
estimate it should have risen by 8%. Thus, we estimate
APD has $1.6 billion top line recovery potential above
the capex contribution, and PX $1.5 billion. Capital
projects should generate 4–5% sales growth through
2012, but the return of business “lost” in 2009 could
boost growth by 1.5–5.0 percentage points p.a. through
2013, driving a stronger top line than consensus
expects.
Emerging markets is critical for growth, as is
hydrogen and electronics. With the majority of new
projects in emerging markets, and with underlying
business in some areas of Asia returning to pre-crisis
levels, exposure to these economies will drive growth.
PX, with the industry’s broadest exposure to emerging
regions, should benefit more than ADP. Air Products
has the greatest exposure to electronics and hydrogen.
We expect $1.7bn of unannounced new hydrogen
projects during the next seven years.