【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国化工行业研究报告
        【作者】：Jefferies
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：
Event
Q4 (December) earnings season could represent the peak for
chemicals vs. the S&P 500. Even with winter shutdowns, limited
visibility, choppy order patterns and raw material volatility, we expect
consensus estimate revisions to be favorable for both 2010 and 2011.
With valuations in line, relative performance could be at risk if the
yield curve flattens, credit markets start to tighten, or companies
mismanage volatility in orders and feedstocks.
Key Points
• As chemicals earnings season begins, consensus appears to
center on 1) solid earnings so focus on sales momentum; 2) bet on
a synchronized global recovery; 3) it's too early to think about
sector rotation (Q2 could be late, in our view); and 4) buy the dips &
stick with beta (a deteriorating risk/reward, in our view).
• What will drive chemical shares after the earnings calls wrap up? 1/
organic growth (particularly in end markets deemed "laggards"); 2/
operating leverage to a 1H10 recovery; 3/ indications of pent-up
demand in niche markets; 4/ progress dealing with
company-specific burdens, particularly balance sheets and
underfunded pension; 5/ signs this downturn has caused structural
shifts (e.g. consolidation, R&D budgets and innovation cycles,
supply contract terms); 6/ prospects of the Fed removing monetary
stimulus (as a catalyst for rotation away from the sector).