Lia.: liability. Rf: risk free rate.
BLACK-SCHOLES OPTION PRICING MODEL.
It assumes that the average debt period of is 100 days, the asset value and liability value equals fair value, risk free rate at 3.1%, volatility is 10%. Black-Scholes model indicates that SPDBank’s price growth from 6.24(2005) to 14.9(2009.9.30),growth by 39.2% per year. Acutally, EPS growth by 33.3% per year from 2005 to 2009. Cash flow from operating per share growth by 78% per share. Comparing with EPS and cash flow, Black-Scholes model is relatively conservative. This can be probably explained that its European style has under valued the company. If the share price in 2005 is reasonable, the share price in 2009.9.31 should be at 23.3, the share price at 2009/12/19 is 20.73, compared with 19.8 in 2009/9/30, a growth by 4.7%. The market is moving to the direction pointed out by Black-Scholes model. If Black-Scholes model is effective and accurate in value banks like SPDBank, the share price of SPDBank should continuely move to 23.3, a growth by 2.57, 12.4%.
Sensitivity analysis clarifies the relation between the factors in the model and the outcome quantitatively. For example, when volatility in 2009 increase to 15%, the value is 17.3, when 10% volatility,14.5, an increase in volatility by 50% resulting an increase in value by 19.3%. reducing Rf to 2%, a reduction by 35.5%, value 14.25, decrease by 4.4%. so it’s more sensitive when volatility changes than Rf changes.
扫码加好友，拉您进群
全部版块
我的主页
收藏
